Rhoades, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

225
FXUS63 KBIS 202320
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
620 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy to areas of fog return early Sunday morning.
- Temperatures warm back into the 70s and low 80s through the
  weekend, then remain mostly in the 70s next week.
- Quiet weather through most of the forecast period.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Quiet weather continues at the time of this early evening
update. Skies remain mostly clear west to cloudy east as mid
level clouds wrap around a upper level low analyzed over
Minnesota. A small band of weak reflectivities is found over
northcentral North Dakota where mid level lapse rates are a
little steep, though dry near surface conditions are expected
to limit any precipitation to virga at this time. Have made some
slight adjustments to the sky grids this evening and have
blended in the latest model guidance into the potential fog
across southern North Dakota tonight, but otherwise the forecast
remains on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Currently the stacked low that gave North Dakota all the rain
this week, is now sitting over southwestern Wisconsin. The other
low that was mentioned yesterday is sitting over the North
Dakota and Canadian Border. This low however does not translate
to the surface. At the surface, a high pressure sits in that
same spot. At the mid-levels the western CONUS is a weak ridge
the extends to western North Dakota where the backside of that
upper level low sits. Clouds across the state continue to erode
as the surface low moves east away from the Northern Plains, and
the surface high exist in the state.
Tonight, with that surface high, calm winds and clear skis will
lead to another morning of patchy to areas of fog. Sunday will
be the warmest day of the forecast period as a shortwave ridge
will be influencing the state. The far west will likely see
highs in the low 80s. Away from the thermal ridge, in the east,
temperatures will warm into the low 70s.
Monday another low could influence North Dakota as it dives
south from Canada into Montana. The CAMs and the NBM have been
taming down the rain chances however the last 36 hours. The
actual low itself will miss the Dakotas, but far southwest North
Dakota will be in positive vorticity for a few hours, so a few
showers could form. The rest of the week looks to be in a Omega
blocking pattern that slowly moves east. So temperatures will
remain in the 70s without any rain chances.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR ceilings and visibility is found at all terminals to begin
the 00Z TAF period. Low VFR to high MVFR ceilings across eastern
North Dakota will continue to diminish through the evening.
Patchy to areas of fog are possible in southwestern and central North
Dakota tonight through mid Sunday morning, with confidence
highest across south central North Dakota. Have opted to include
BR at KBIS and KJMS, with KJMS dropping into MVFR visibility
during this period. Confidence remains lower at KDIK and KMOT
at the time of this forecast update. Winds are expected to
remain light and somewhat disorganized this evening and
overnight, somewhat organizing out of the south southwest Sunday
morning. Breezy conditions, with speeds up to 12 knots, are
possible in the northwest late Sunday morning through the mid
afternoon as a modest LLJ sets up over northeastern Montana.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Adam
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Adam

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion