Rices Mills, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

138
FXUS61 KBTV 231047
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
647 AM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of unsettled weather is expected through the week with
several chances for light rain showers. Scattered to numerous
rain showers are expected today. After a relative lull on
Wednesday, rain chances will again increase on Thursday and
Friday ahead of a stronger area of low pressure. One last system
will pass through with scattered shower activity on Sunday
before large high pressure returns next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday...An area of rain will lift
northeastward across our region today bringing scattered to
numerous rain showers. Chance for thunder is pretty minimal with
very limited surface instability available. There`s an outside
chance of a rumble of thunder with some elevated instability.
This area of showers does have good jet dynamics and deeper
moisture, so widespread precipitation is likely. No severe
weather is anticipated. Southerly flow will be in place for our
region, and we will have an increase in moisture as well as
dewpoints due to this. Conditions will feel a bit humid this
afternoon. Maximum temperatures today will range from the mid
50s in the high peaks to lower 70s in the St Lawrence, Champlain
and Connecticut River valleys. Overnight temperatures will
remain pretty mild also, mainly ranging through the 50s. Could
see some lingering drizzly conditions overnight with abundant
low level moisture still in place. Wednesday will be another
warm and possibly humid day once again. High temperatures will
be just a tad higher than today, mainly upper 60s to mid 70s.
Should see a break in precipitation on Wednesday, though can`t
rule out some stray scattered light rain showers so have chance
pops still.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Tuesday...More widespread precipitation is
expected for later Wednesday night into Thursday as another low
pressure system lifts northeastward from the Ohio River valley.
Some scattered light rain shower are expected Wednesday night,
but more widespread precipitation is anticipated for Thursday.
Some chance for convection Thursday afternoon as well with cold
frontal passage late in the period. Temperatures will range
through the 60s on Thursday, and 50s Wednesday night. Beneficial
rainfall is expected with the widespread precipitation on
Thursday, at this time at least a quarter inch of rainfall
areawide with some locally higher amounts especially in any
convection.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 137 AM EDT Tuesday...Unsettled weather continues late
week as an area of low pressure speeds east-northeastwards
across Quebec and into the Canadian Maritimes, dragging a cold
front across the northeastern United States. Thursday night
could feature additional rainfall amounts of 0.10-0.40" with
highest amounts east of the Greens. Models continue to disagree
on the exact positioning of this low, the speed of its exit from
our forecast area, and its interaction with another shortwave.
However, overall chances look good for some measurable rainfall
for all within 24 hours, then about 50-70% and higher chances of
a wetting 0.1" rainfall for the Greens and eastward.
Then, high pressure is expected to build into the region
Saturday, briefly returning the region to dry weather.
Temperatures will likely rise into the 70s Friday and Saturday,
falling into the mid 40s to mid 50s at night. A cold front may
swipe the area Saturday night and Sunday, so have some 20-40%
chances of precip around that time period, otherwise dry weather
continues early next week. Temps will take a hit following the
cold front with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s and lows in the
mid 30s to upper 40s. This may bring an increased risk of frost
early next week under high pressure.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...A challenging TAF forecast this morning
as light to moderate rain brings ceilings down to around 200-400
feet above ground level and visibilities 3-5 miles throughout
the St. Lawrence Valley/KMSS. KSLK is also experiencing milder
showers with ceilings 2800-3000 feet and vis 4-6 miles. We
expect showers to continue their east/northeastward journey to
all the TAF sites today, lowering ceilings to prevailing
1000-3000 feet and vis to 3-6 miles.
Most sites have the potential for some IFR ceilings to occur
with the rainfall, most likely around 13Z-23Z Tuesday. KSLK and
KMSS have a good chance of prevailing IFR ceilings during this
period. Hard to say exactly when these low ceilings lift, but
there should be a period of lifting and even scattering ceilings
overnight 00Z-12Z Wednesday, which could result in valley fog
following the rain. Winds will be generally southerly with a
terrain element to them today (less than 10 knots), then going
calm tonight. Except for KMSS, which seems to pick up a
northerly wind today instead.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Storm

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion