Richfield, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

818
FXUS63 KMKX 062044
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
344 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and storms with a cold frontal passage this
  afternoon becoming more widespread tonight with post frontal
  rain.
- Dry and cooler with a return to seasonal temperatures Tuesday
  through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 344 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Tonight through Tuesday night:
The cold front is currently located over far se WI with just
isolated to scattered showers mainly behind the front. Deep surface
based convection is occurring over Lake County, IL and will
still be possible over Racine and Kenosha Counties through 6 PM
CDT but chances are down to 40%. Farther to the north and west,
post frontal showers and isold storms (30-50%) are forecast
through sunset. Afterward, a 700 mb shortwave trough will
approach from srn MN and nrn IA with 850 mb flow backing ahead
of the trough. Well organized and fairly strong 850 mb
frontogenesis will develop with 60-80% chances for showers tnt
for much of srn WI. There remains very marginal elevated CAPE in
the post frontal airmass so will still mention thunder. Temps
will fall to 40s along and north of Highway 151 with lower to
middle 50s to the south.
Clearing skies are then expected Tue AM as dry air and subsidence
arrives in the wake of the cold front and shortwave trough. High
pressure will move along the US/Canadian border with the high
arriving over nrn WI by 12Z Wed. Near normal high temps are
forecast for Tue followed by middle to upper 30s inland from the
lake for Tue nt. Areas of frost are likely along and north of
highway 151 and a Frost Advisory may be needed.
Gehring
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 344 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Wednesday through Monday:
The GEFS and ECMWF Ens mean show good agreement on upper
ridging taking hold as well as sfc high pressure slowly moving
across the Great Lakes through Thu. Near normal temps are
forecast along with patchy frost over portions of south central
WI Wed nt. A weak shortwave trough will then traverse across the
nrn Great Lakes late Thu nt and Fri with a weak sfc trough or
cold front dissipating across srn WI. Only 10-20 percent chances
for rain are forecast at this time.
Upper ridging will then return to the Great Lakes for the
weekend while upper troughing will prevail from the Pacific NW
newd into central Canada. Sly winds and above normal temps will
return to srn WI. The trailing and decaying cold front from low
pressure over Canada may then reach srn WI on Mon. 20-40 percent
chances of showers are forecast at this time.
Gehring
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 344 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Cigs of 1000-1900 feet behind a cold front are prevalent over
east central and much of south central WI and the low Cigs are
expected to move into far se WI late this afternoon and early
evening. The low Cigs will then last much of the night for all
of srn WI. Scattered showers and storms are expected along and
behind the front this afternoon then becoming more widespread
tnt. Vsbys of 2-5SM BR will develop within any rain areas.
Clearing skies are then forecast from nw to se across srn WI Tue
AM. VFR conditions will continue Tue afternoon and night.
Gehring
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 344 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
A Canadian cold front will continue to slowly progress southward
across the south half of Lake Michigan, reaching the southern tip
of the lake by early evening. Modest southwesterly winds will
turn northerly behind the cold front passage and last through
Tuesday night. The northerly winds will become breezy during this
time over the south half of the lake with building waves. High
pressure builds to around 30.4 inches into the Upper Midwest
Tuesday and settles over the Great Lakes Region through midweek
resulting in lighter, varying winds. Increasing southerly winds
return for the end of the week as the high pressure gradually
slides further east. For the nearshore waters from Sheboygan to
Winthrop Harbor, waves may build to 4 to 5 feet south of Port
Washington late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.
Gehring
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion