457 FXUS64 KOHX 300339 AFDOHXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1039 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1034 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- No hazardous weather expected through this week with dry conditions and above normal temperatures.
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.SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
There`s not much to talk about with the weather as the overall pattern continues to be dominated by upper-level high pressure. Off the Atlantic Coast, Tropical Storm Imelda continues to spin with Hurricane Humberto off to its east. But their tracks continue to steer both of them farther out into the Atlantic. There does remain the low chance that some moisture off the coast seeps into the far eastern Plateau Tuesday, helping to develop very isolated showers. However, this forecast keeps those rain chances low at only around 10-15% with the more likely outcome that there is just more cloud cover. Otherwise, Tuesday promises to be another nice, but still warm, day as highs for most of the area get to near 90 degrees - 10 degrees above normal for the end of September. The above normal temperatures continue into the first day of October with highs remaining in the 80s to near 90 with dry conditions and mostly clear skies.
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.LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
High pressure continues to dominate through the week, keeping our high temperatures warm in the mid to upper-80s. There`s still no rain in sight until perhaps the end of the weekend. A pattern change looks to come Sunday and into early next week as a system and moisture originating from the Gulf makes its way north. Of course, this far out, there`s still uncertainty, but it`s enough to introduce low (15-30%) rain chances to the forecast Sunday and into Tuesday.
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.AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
A surface ridge is situated to the west of Middle Tennessee this evening, so our winds will maintain a northerly component, which also translates to a stable atmosphere and VFR wx, with the exception of the typical radiation fog at our two Cumberland Plateau terminals (KCSV and KSRB).
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 63 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Clarksville 60 90 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Crossville 57 80 56 80 / 0 10 10 0 Columbia 60 87 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cookeville 59 82 59 83 / 0 10 0 0 Jamestown 59 81 57 82 / 0 10 0 0 Lawrenceburg 59 85 60 85 / 0 10 0 0 Murfreesboro 60 87 61 87 / 0 10 0 0 Waverly 60 87 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
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.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Rose
NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion