Riffel, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

040
FXUS63 KILX 042312
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
612 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An Elevated Fire Risk is in place along and north of a
  Jacksonville to Danville line on Sunday. Burning is highly
  discouraged due to dry fuels, low relative humidity values, and
  southerly winds gusting over 20mph.
- A cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to
  central Illinois Monday into Tuesday. Significant drought
  improvement is not expected.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Another unseasonably warm day is on tap across central Illinois
on Sunday as high temperatures once again climb well into the 80s.
As low pressure lifts into southwestern Ontario and the pressure
gradient tightens, S/SW winds will increase to 10-15mph with gusts
exceeding 20mph everywhere west of the I-57 corridor. Given the
antecedent drought conditions and dry fuels in place, concern is
growing for wildfire potential. We have already seen a couple
fires on satellite imagery today and think conditions will be even
more favorable for rapid fire spread on Sunday. SPC is currently
highlighting locations along/north of the I-72 corridor for an
Elevated Fire Risk...and think this looks reasonable given the
gusty winds and projected afternoon RH values dropping into the
25-35% range. While Red Flag criteria will likely not be met,
burning is highly discouraged across all of central and southeast
Illinois. In addition to the fire risk, motorists should be aware
of possible reduced visibilities on area roadways as harvesting
activities stir up dust that gets carried by the gusty winds.
Barnes
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
A vigorous upper low evident on 19z/2pm water vapor imagery over
the Great Basin will track northeastward over the next 24 hours,
gradually flattening the prevailing ridge over the Midwest/Great
Lakes. As this process unfolds, a cold front currently over the
Dakotas will get nudged southward toward central Illinois on
Monday. While deep-layer moisture will initially be lacking as
evidenced by precipitable water values below 1 inch on Sunday,
those values will increase to around 1.50 by Monday afternoon as
Gulf moisture flows northward ahead of the approaching boundary.
Thanks to forcing along the front interacting with the increasing
moisture, showers and a few thunderstorms will develop Monday
afternoon through Tuesday before the boundary drops southward
into the Ohio River Valley. While this will not be a drought-
busting rainfall by any means, the latest QPF values have
increased into the 0.50 to 1 inch range along/south of I-70 where
rain chances will linger the longest. Further north, rainfall will
be lighter...with most spots picking up 0.10 to 0.50. Once the
front passes, seasonable temperatures in the lower to middle 70s
can be expected Wednesday and Thursday before readings once again
approach the 80-degree mark ahead of another approaching cold
front by the end of the week.
Barnes
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Skies will become clear tonight as cumulus gradually tapers away
this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Residual surface
high pressure will remain in place on Sunday, keeping skies VFR;
though, low-level winds will increase as the surface pressure
gradient tightens ahead of an incoming cold front. Surface winds
will be from the south on Sunday with sustained speeds between
10-15 kts and occasional gusts up to 25 kts.
MJA
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion