Rito De Las Sillas, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

968
FXUS65 KABQ 071925
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
125 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
- A warming and drying trend will occur early this week with
  isolated showers and storms favoring eastern areas today, the
  southern high terrain Monday, and the western and central high
  terrain Tuesday.
- A few storms across the northeast and east central plains may
  become strong to severe this afternoon and evening. Main
  hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large hail.
- Wetter and more active weather looks to return Wednesday through
  Friday with a greater coverage of showers and storms,
  especially across western and central New Mexico.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 118 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Dry air has moved in overnight and should make it a much less active
weather day across the Land of Enchantment. Low clouds have been
quick to erode in eastern NM so eastern areas should be around 10
degrees or so warmer than yesterday with all the extra sunshine.
Some fair weather cumulus has begun to develop over the high terrain
of western and northern NM, but dry air should prevent the
development of showers and storms (outside of the east slopes of the
central mountain chain). A cu-field in the eastern plains highlights
the presence of a boundary that could serve as an initiation point
for storms this afternoon, although hi-res models aren`t
particularly enthused about development here. Higher instability
(sfc based CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg) and bulk shear in the 20-30kt
range will support a few stronger storms as they move off the Sangre
de Cristo mountains into the northeast highlands and plains.
Convection should be very isolated, with only two or three
individual cells at most. The boundary layer won`t be particularly
deep and temps only in the low 80s should keep DCAPE below 1000
j/kg, limiting the damaging wind threat. Moist SE inflow should help
any evening storms persist into the overnight hours as they turn
south and hug the NM/TX border. These storms will eventually move
into a lower shear environment in the SE plains which should disrupt
the storms` updrafts and lead to their demise. Patchy low clouds and
fog may develop again tonight, with the best chance in the east-
central plains (low confidence).
Ridging will amplify over the Intermountain West on Monday,
resulting in a slight uptick in afternoon temps. Highs are forecast
to be in the mid 80s to low 90s in most lower elevation locations,
which is generally 2-6 degrees above seasonal averages. Skies will
be mostly clear around the region and it should be dry with the
exception of a few showers in the southwest and south-central
mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 118 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Tuesday will be similar to Monday with ridging remaining dominant
over the Intermountain West. Some mid-level moisture may start to
creep in from the south, providing the fuel for a few high-based
showers and storms. Deeper moisture begins to arrive Wednesday as an
upper-trough digs into The Great Basin. Models have been
consistently placing the main moisture plume over western NM and
overall agreement in trough placement is quite strong. PWATs could
rise to as much as 150% of normal, but most of the moisture will be
in the mid-levels so this probably won`t translate to widespread
heavy rainfall. Jet forcing from the approaching trough will be the
main driver of precipitation and so rain will not be as diurnally
driven as a result. LIs from the GFS are quite modest (-1 to -3C)
each day, suggesting updraft strength will be limited. A southerly
breeze will already prevail in most areas and gusty showers falling
into the dry boundary layer will only act to enhance these winds.
It`s still too far out to get into specific rain amounts, but
guidance is consistently showing the highest amounts (Wednesday
through Friday) in the Jemez and southern Sangre de Cristo mountains
where orographic lift will help to enhance rainfall rates. Model
agreement starts to decrease over the weekend as the aformentioned
trough ejects inland. European ensemble members favor a deeper
trough that moves well into the desert southwest while the GEFS
favors a track further north. The European solution would actually
result in more precipitation, particularly over the northwest high
terrain, but would scour out moisture as it sends the first Pacific
cold front across the state from west to east. The shallower trough
solution represented by the GEFS would keep enough lingering
moisture around for additional showers and storms even after its
passage, particularly in eastern NM.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 118 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Mostly dry weather will prevail around the region today, with only
isolated showers and storms along and east of the central mountain
chain. A strong cell could impact KCAO or KTCC this afternoon and
evening, but chances of a direct hit are low. IFR cigs and patchy
fog may develop in the eastern plains, including along the Pecos
River Valley, between 09Z and 15Z tomorrow, but coverage should
be more limited than previous mornings.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 118 PM MDT Sun Sep 7 2025
Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7
days. Today and Monday will be mostly dry, with only a few isolated
storms in eastern NM. Moisture increases mid-week, increasing the
coverage of gusty showers and storms. A southerly breezy will also
trend stronger mid to late week as an early season trough digs into
The Great Basin. Rain chances mid to late next week will generally
favor areas north of I-40, with lower chances to the south. Heavy
rainfall rates are less likely with this pattern, but gusty outflow
winds will become more common. Temperatures will trend lower mid to
late week as well, but should remain within a few degrees of
seasonal averages. The first Pacific frontal passage of the season
may occur next weekend, but models still show significant
disagreement with the placement of the aformentioned trough as it
moves inland. Shower and storm chances are highest in eastern areas
next weekend where lingering moisture may interact with additional
shortwave troughs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  56  86  57  87 /   0   0   0  10
Dulce...........................  41  82  43  82 /   0   0   0  10
Cuba............................  50  81  52  81 /   0   0   0  20
Gallup..........................  49  84  50  82 /   0   0   0  10
El Morro........................  50  81  51  81 /   0   0   0  20
Grants..........................  50  85  51  85 /   0   5   0  20
Quemado.........................  51  83  53  83 /   0  10   0  10
Magdalena.......................  57  84  58  83 /   0  10   0  20
Datil...........................  51  81  52  81 /   0  10   5  20
Reserve.........................  51  89  52  87 /   0  10   0  10
Glenwood........................  57  91  57  90 /   5   5   0  10
Chama...........................  43  77  45  77 /   0   5   0  20
Los Alamos......................  55  79  57  79 /   0   0   0  20
Pecos...........................  51  80  52  80 /   0   0   0  20
Cerro/Questa....................  49  79  50  78 /   0   0   0  10
Red River.......................  42  69  42  69 /   0   5   0  10
Angel Fire......................  36  73  35  73 /   0   0   0  10
Taos............................  47  81  47  81 /   0   0   0  10
Mora............................  47  78  47  77 /   0   0   0  10
Espanola........................  53  86  53  85 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe........................  55  81  57  81 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  53  84  54  83 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  63  86  65  87 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  60  89  62  88 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  60  91  61  91 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  60  89  63  89 /   0   0   0  10
Belen...........................  58  91  58  91 /   0   0   0  10
Bernalillo......................  59  90  61  90 /   0   0   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  57  90  58  90 /   0   0   0  10
Corrales........................  60  91  62  90 /   0   0   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  58  90  59  90 /   0   0   0  10
Placitas........................  58  85  60  85 /   0   0   0  10
Rio Rancho......................  60  89  62  89 /   0   0   0  10
Socorro.........................  61  92  63  92 /   0   5   0  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  55  81  56  82 /   0   0   0  10
Tijeras.........................  56  82  57  83 /   0   0   0  10
Edgewood........................  52  84  52  84 /   0   0   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  49  85  50  86 /   0   0   0  10
Clines Corners..................  53  80  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
Mountainair.....................  53  83  54  84 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  53  83  55  83 /   0   0   0  10
Carrizozo.......................  59  86  61  86 /   0   5   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  55  79  57  79 /   0  10   0  20
Capulin.........................  50  79  50  81 /  10  10   0   5
Raton...........................  50  83  49  83 /   5   5   0  10
Springer........................  50  85  49  85 /   5   5   0   5
Las Vegas.......................  50  81  50  81 /   5   0   0  10
Clayton.........................  58  86  57  89 /  20  20   0   5
Roy.............................  54  84  52  85 /  10   5   0   5
Conchas.........................  59  90  58  91 /  10   5   0   5
Santa Rosa......................  55  89  55  88 /   5   0   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  58  87  58  90 /  20  10   0   5
Clovis..........................  61  90  62  92 /  20  10   0  10
Portales........................  61  91  62  93 /  20  10   5  10
Fort Sumner.....................  60  91  60  91 /  10   5   0  10
Roswell.........................  63  92  63  94 /   0   5   0   5
Picacho.........................  56  88  58  89 /   0  10   0  10
Elk.............................  55  86  56  86 /   0  20   0  10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion