Robinsonville, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

093
FXUS64 KMEG 060202
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
902 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 828 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
- There is a low chance (less than 20%) of a few strong to severe
  thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly along and
  south of the I-40 corridor. Damaging winds and large hail are
  the primary threats.
- A pleasant and unseasonably cool weekend is on tap, with highs
  in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s.
- Hot and dry conditions will return next week, with temperatures
  climbing back into the 90s, likely worsening ongoing drought
  conditions.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A cold front remains located just south of the I-40 corridor late
this evening. A subtle mid-level shortwave over portions of
Kentucky and near the Tennessee River is still resulting in some
residual showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, activity has
largely waned across the Mid-South. Adjusted rain chances down for
the evening as latest short-term trends suggest the best
potential for showers and thunderstorms will occur overnight.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
The latest surface analysis places a cold front just north of the
I-40 corridor, with visible satellite imagery showing high cirrus
streaming across the region. Drier air has already begun to move
in behind the front, noted by dewpoints in the upper 50s and
lower 60s in southeast Missouri. The front is expected to slow
and stall right along the I-40 corridor through late afternoon.
South of the boundary, the atmosphere will destabilize with up to
2500 J/kg of MLCAPE on hand. Coupled with 30 to 35 knots of bulk
shear, convective initiation will begin within the next 3 to
4 hours and likely initiate in west Tennessee. A Slight Risk
(2/5) has been slightly expanded for areas along the Tennessee
River, where lift, instability, and shear will be maximized this
afternoon and evening. A Marginal Risk (1/5) remains in effect
for the rest of the Mid-South.
Damaging winds and large hail remain the main threats with a low
risk (

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion