Rock Creek, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

256
FXUS65 KBOI 260243
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
843 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.DISCUSSION...A dry cold front is approaching the area this
evening, located just west of the forecast area as of 8:30 PM
MDT. The front remains on track for a rapid overnight passage,
with an expected arrival at the Oregon-Idaho border around
midnight, Boise around 3 AM, and Twin Falls/Jerome by 6 AM MDT.
Pre-frontal winds have already increased in the Baker Valley and
the Lower Treasure Valley, with gusts up to 30 mph. Expect
these west/northwest winds to continue behind the frontal
passage, at 10 to 20 mph with gusts as strong as 35 mph between
Mountain Home and Gooding, ID, on Friday morning.The entire
system will move rapidly eastward out of our area later Friday
morning, allowing a flat upper-level ridge to build in from
Friday night through Saturday night. The current forecast
handles this well, so no updates are needed at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. Dry cold front bringing scattered to Broken mid-
level clouds overnight into early Friday morning. Surface winds:
Variable up to 10kt ahead of the front, becoming W-NW 10-20 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt behind the front after Fri/04z. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: W 10-20 kt.
KBOI...VFR. A dry cold front bringing W-NW winds by 06z. Surface
winds: W-NW 5-15 overnight, with gusts of 20 kt after Fri/18z.
Weekend Outlook...VFR through Sunday night high pressure builds in
behind the dry cold front. Increasing high clouds and SE wind late
Sunday ahead of a strong Pacific trough slated to impact the region
Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night...Latest models bring
a dry Pacific cold front across eastern OR tonight between 9 PM
and midnight PDT, and western ID between midnight and 6 AM MDT.
Clouds from the upper low in Calif will clip the CWA/NV border
ahead of the approaching frontal band. Post-frontal winds will
mix out the usual sunrise low-level inversion and low temps
tonight should be several degrees warmer than last night. Friday
should be 10 degrees cooler than today with brisk west/northwest
winds 10-20 mph, and gusts as strong as 35 mph between Mountain
Home and Gooding ID Friday morning. The entire system will move
rapidly east out of our area Friday, and a flat upper ridge
will come in Friday night through Saturday night. Saturday`s
high temps will be 6-8 degrees warmer than Friday along with
sunny skies and lighter wind.
LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Sunday will be the last
day of warm and dry weather before a pattern change unfolds
early next week. Temperatures will peak around 10 degrees
above normal on Sunday as southwest flow strengthens ahead of
a deepening trough. Monday will see temperatures cool 10-15
degrees from Sunday with increasing chances of precipitation as
the trough advances to the coast. Models remain consistent in
advancing the low pressure through the Pac NW Tue/Wed bringing
widespread rainfall to SE Oregon and SW Idaho. The cooler air
aloft will drop snow levels to around 8kft MSL by Wednesday
morning and reduce high temperatures to 5-10 degrees below
normal (lower 50s/mtns to mid 60s/valleys). Precipitable water
amounts will reach the 90+ percentile and forecast water totals
through Wednesday afternoon are pointing to 0.25-0.75" amounts
at lower elevations with 0.75-1.5" amounts in the mtns. The
forecast for Thursday still shows a drying trend, though the
GFS has one more upper trough that could extend precipitation
chances before upper ridging takes hold to end the week.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....NF
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....DG

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion