Rover, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

302
FXUS64 KLZK 050549
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1249 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
-Warm and dry conditions will continue through the day today.
-More organized and widespread rain chances for much of the state
 will return through the Monday to Tuesday timeframe.
-A cold front is set to move through the region on Wednesday,
 tapering off rain chances and ushering in cooler and more
 seasonable conditions, with settled weather resuming through the
 end of the week.
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025
Latest mesoanalysis depicted a prominent cosine wave H500 flow
pattern, w/ broad troughing acrs the Cont Divide, and ridging
centered over the Great Lakes to NErn US. Sfc high pressure that had
been rooted over the Ern US was also noted moving Ewrd into
Atlantic, w/ a fetch of Srly to SErly sfc flow positioned over the
Srn Cntrl US.
Thru the day today and into Mon, the upper flow pattern wl begin to
deamplify, w/ Wrn US troughing elongating and transitioning fm a
neutral to largely positive tilt, extending fm the Cont Divide to
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. As H500 Swrly flow
overspreads the Cntrl US, low-lvl WAA and poleward moisture
transport wl ensue acrs the Srn Cntrl US, w/ dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s quickly advancing to at least the periphery of the Ozark
Plateau by Mon aftn.
A sfc pressure col is progged to set up fm SW to NE, extending fm
the OK/TX panhandle region to the Upper Midwest, as a surge of
continental sfc high pressure moves Swrd thru the Cntrl Plains, and
collides w/ lingering Atlantic sfc high pressure. This col feature,
or inverted sfc pressure trof, depending on the frame of reference,
wl lkly result in an axis of enhanced QPF during the Mon to Tues
timeframe, and as of now, is expected to reside well north of the
FA.
However, higher Chc PoPs are still expected acrs much of the FA
beginning on Mon due to aforementioned WAA/isentropic ascent and
asctd incrsg moisture transport. Greater confidence of higher QPF
currently lies acrs the Ern half of the state on Mon, and
particularly NErn AR, which should be good news for most w/
potential drought relief on the way.
Rain chcs wl continue thru Tues over much of the FA, w/ the Cntrl
Plains sfc high pressure eventually winning out and moving further
Swrd as it gains more upper level support fm a pivoting vorticity
max embedded w/in the mean flow. Tues night and into Wed, a cdfrnt
along the leading edge of this sfc high pressure wl advance Swrd
into the Ozarks, and then shift Ewrd, w/ the Great Lakes once again
under broad high pressure.
In the wake of the frnt, which looks to shift towards a "back-door"
frnt signal as sfc high pressure settles to the east, NErly sfc
winds wl prevail thru at least the end of the week, ushering in
cooler and drier air over the Natural State and settled wx condns
prevailing.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Expect VFR flight category for all terminals for the entire duration
of the forecast period from early Sunday morning through early
Monday morning. Fair weather conditions are to be expected over the
forecast period across all terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     87  64  79  65 /   0  20  60  50
Camden AR         86  67  81  67 /  10  20  60  30
Harrison AR       83  61  80  63 /   0  10  40  30
Hot Springs AR    86  66  81  67 /  10  20  50  40
Little Rock   AR  86  68  79  68 /  10  20  50  50
Monticello AR     88  69  83  69 /  10  30  60  40
Mount Ida AR      86  65  81  66 /  10  10  40  30
Mountain Home AR  85  63  81  65 /   0  10  40  30
Newport AR        88  67  79  68 /   0  20  60  60
Pine Bluff AR     88  68  82  67 /  10  20  50  40
Russellville AR   86  66  83  67 /   0  10  40  30
Searcy AR         88  67  79  67 /  10  30  60  50
Stuttgart AR      88  69  81  69 /  10  30  50  50
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...74

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion