Ryegate, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

879
FXUS61 KBTV 210610
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
210 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will gradually rebound from the cold this morning as
warmer more moist air moves into the region by early this week.
The end to the weekend will remain dry, with some increased
shower chances Monday night and Tuesday. Any rain will be
relatively light with little impact on drought conditions.
Continued mainly dry and seasonable conditions will continue
through mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 137 AM EDT Sunday...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories
remain in place through 8 AM this morning. Lows in the upper
20s to mid 30s will be widespread away from Lake Champlain.
Temperatures continue to fall this morning with many locations
seeing widespread frost, and a hard freeze across portions of
the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Today will be another
beautiful day, with just passing high clouds expected. The ridge
will push eastward through the day, allowing south/southwest
flow to develop. This will serve to warm temperatures into the
mid/upper 60s to mid 70s, which is close to or a little above
normal. With the southerly flow, lake enhanced winds from
channeled flow could lead to breezy conditions in the Champlain
Valley. Gusts will increase to 20 mph this afternoon and look to
continue to be breezy into tonight. The warming trend will
continue into tonight, so don`t anticipate much, if any, frost.
Temperatures tonight will be split with some cloud cover across
northern New York. Values will be in the upper 40s to low 50s,
higher in the St. Lawrence Valley, across northern New York.
Some cooler hollows in the Adirondacks may cool into the low
40s. In Vermont, clearing skies should remain longer with
additional radiative cooling time leading to values in the
upper 30s to low 40s, with cooler temperatures in the Northeast
Kingdom. Temperatures in the Champlain Valley will be mainly in
the low 50s. Increased surface flow tonight should also
limit/prevent any fog from developing.
Monday will be noticeably warmer with increasing cloud cover
throughout the day. High pressure will move eastward as a trough
begins to dig in from the west. This will keep winds from the
south with waa and increasing moisture. A series of weak cold
fronts will begin to move into the St. Lawrence Valley Monday
afternoon with chances for scattered showers. Precipitation
will be mainly light with forcing on the weaker side, and better
forcing to our north and west. Ahead of the front, a low-level
jet will move into the area with breezy conditions continuing on
Lake Champlain and in the higher terrain. Gusts up to 20 mph
are likely throughout Monday afternoon near the Lake and in the
Adirondacks and spine of the Greens. Temperatures will climb
into the mid 70s for most of the region on Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 137 AM EDT Sunday...Temperatures Monday night will be on
the warmer side compared to previous nights with lows in the
upper 50s to low 60s. Better forcing and precipitation chances
increase Monday night into Tuesday as another shortwave ejects
out of the overarching upper low that will be situated to our
north during the early week. Showers may be higher in spatial
coverage Tuesday than Monday, but precipitation amounts will
remain low with the shortwaves moving into the dry air mass that
has been lingering over the area for the last week. 24-hour NBM
probabilities of greater than 0.25" in northern New York has
increased slightly to 65% in northern New York and near 40% for
most of Vermont. Current forecast shows the highest amounts
will be in northern New York, and across the Vermont
International Border through Tuesday afternoon. Note that the
NBM probability of 6-hr rainfall, during the short term, of
greater than 0.1 inches is only 25-35%. Most CAMs have shown a
slight drying trend so we will have to monitor these, and as
such have trended the much higher NBM PoPs down, especially
since the precipitation will be working into such a dry air
mass. Regardless, any rain we do get will not be widespread and
will be light, with no impact on the drought conditions.
Temperatures on Tuesday will continue to be on the mild side
with highs in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 137 AM EDT Sunday...Canadian Maritimes shortwave rotates across
Quebec, northern New England Tuesday night-Wed with scattered
showers then some shortwave ridging for Wed ngt-Thu.
Thereafter...a messy pattern with a weak closed low to open wave in
the Ms Rvr-Oh Rvr Vlys with moisture and northern stream shortwave
traveling across northern Ontario-northern Quebec. How much moisture
from the southern system advects north and interacts with northern
disturbance? It certainly doesn`t spell drought buster...for now
just chance of some scattered showers in the late Friday-Saturday
timeframe.
Temperatures remain seasonable through the period with normals
dropping a deg/two weekly. No real cold air so no more frost-freeze
for awhile.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR conditions will mostly prevail for the
next 24 hours. Some patchy fog early this morning for eastern VT
including KMPV with LIFR possible between 09-13z. Otherwise VFR
today with winds becoming southerly aft daybreak with gusts in
the 10-15 KT range, but they could gust up to 20 KTs at BTV and
PBG.
Outlook...
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
With low temperatures expected tonight, some climate sites will
be at or within a few degrees of their daily low record:
Record Low Temperatures:
September 21:
KMPV: 26/2020
KSLK: 21/2020
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002-005-
     009>011-016>021.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ003-004-
     006>008.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026>029-034-
     035-087.
     Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for NYZ030-031.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Danzig
NEAR TERM...Danzig
SHORT TERM...Danzig
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
CLIMATE...

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion