Saddlebrooke, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

281
FXUS65 KTWC 042049
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
149 PM MST Sat Oct 4 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will occur over the weekend into the
middle of next week. High temperatures will be near normal this
weekend, along with breezy southwest winds as a system moves to our
north. High temperatures warm to 4 to 8 degrees above normal next
week. A slight chance of precipitation returns by late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a trough over the Great
Basin centered to the north and broad high pressure over the
southeastern U.S. Troughing will stay in place into early next
week with a couple shortwaves rotating through to the north and
west. For today the trough will lead to elevated winds with gusts
25-40 mph. Current observations show the highest gust at ALK with
a speed of 36 mph. Tomorrow winds stay elevated along the
international border with gusts up to 30 mph. Temperatures will be
around normal today and Sunday.
After Monday the trough flattens out and moves eastward as the
high over the Southeast slowly expands westward. Arizona will stay
under southwest flow in the mid-levels through the work week.
Temperatures will begin to warm Monday as the ridge builds into
the region becoming 4-8 degrees above normal through the end of
the work week.
In the tropics EP99 will likely very soon become a tropical storm
and move northward towards Baja. Current models bring it up the
west coast of Baja mid to late next week. This far out still a
decent amount of uncertainty with its exact path. However models
are in good agreement with anomalous tropical moisture being
advected into southern Arizona Wednesday into next weekend. Both
the GEFS and European ensemble show precipitable water values
175-200 percent of normal across the CWA. However at this time it
looks like there will be very little in the way of upper level
support while the moisture is in place. High pressure will be
dominating the region with the GEFS showing the high directly
overhead and the EPS a little further east over Texas by Friday.
A strong closed low will be over the Pacific Northwest but will be
too far away to provide support, and there is currently a lot of
uncertainty with how it will evolve. Because of this uncertainty
and the lack of upper level support PoPs right now are on the
lower end generally 15-20 percent Friday into Saturday with a
slight chance in the White Mountains Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 06/00Z.
SKC through the period. Sfc wind SLY/SWLY with speeds of 12-20
kts and gusts to 22-30 kts thru 05/03Z, with the strongest SFC
wind southeast of KTUS in the vicinity of KALK and KDUG. This
evening and overnight expect SFC winds less than 8 kts. Sunday
afternoon winds will be elevated at KOLS and KDUG terminals with
speeds 10-15 kts and gusts to 25 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail across southeast Arizona
this weekend into the middle of next week. A storm system will move
to our north this weekend, resulting in gusty southwest winds. 20-
foot winds will be 12-18 mph and gusts to around 30 mph today, with
the strongest winds southeast of Tucson across eastern portions of
Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. Min RH values in the valleys will
be in the 12-20 percent range over the weekend through early next
week. RH values in the mountains will generally be in the 25-35
percent range. High temperatures will be around normal this weekend,
warming back up to 3-5 degrees above normal next week. Starting
Wednesday winds become easterly with some gusts in the Gila River
Valley.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Hardin
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion