Safford, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

778
FXUS64 KBMX 210737
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
237 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2025
Largely zonal upper level flow is forecast to continue across the
southeast states in the short term. Within that longwave pattern,
a shortwave trough is forecast to zip across the area today. As
conditions warm up this afternoon and instability increases, we do
expect a slight increase in convective coverage compared to the
previous several days. Will continue to go with a somewhat
broadbrushed 30 percent POP for most areas this afternoon. But
wouldn`t be surprised if there are several county-sized pockets
of greater thunderstorm coverage (50 percent or more?).
/61/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 225 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2025
Main feature in the long term continues to be an upper level
trough that is forecast to dig into the eastern CONUS the middle
to end of the upcoming week. Global models are still having a
difficult time resolving timing and strength/shape differences in
this trough, but I think it is pretty safe to say that a
significant increase in rain coverage can be expected in central
Alabama during this time frame. Right now the ensemble based model
blends have targeted Thursday as the most likely rainiest day,
complete with a surface cold front passage, and that seems
reasonable. There will probably also be a (at least a momentary)
moderation in temperatures post frontal passage as well.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2025
Conditions will be VFR across central Alabama TAF sites for a vast
majority of the time over the next 24 hours. However, However,
convective coverage Sunday afternoon is expected to show a slight
uptick over previous days. Will carry over the PROB30 from the
previous forecast cycle, for the time period of peak afternoon
heating. Outside of shower/thunderstorm areas, cloud bases will
stay at or above 5000 ft and winds generally at or below 7 kts.
/61/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MinRH values will continue to stay in the 30-40% range through
the start of next week, with low end rain chances remaining in
the forecast. High rain chances are ultimately expected to come
with a cold front passage in the Wednesday to Friday time frame.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  65  90  65 /  30  20  20   0
Anniston    89  67  88  67 /  30  20  20   0
Birmingham  92  69  90  69 /  30  20  20   0
Tuscaloosa  94  68  91  68 /  40  20  10   0
Calera      92  68  91  67 /  30  20  10   0
Auburn      89  68  89  67 /  30  10   0   0
Montgomery  92  68  91  67 /  30  20  10   0
Troy        90  67  90  66 /  30  10   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION.../61/

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion