Saint George, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

493
FXUS62 KJAX 081833
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
233 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FL INTO
TUESDAY...
...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY...
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Deep layer winds (1000-500 mb) are east to northeast about 10 kt
or slightly higher. Deep layer moisture remains locked into
northeast FL with values of 2 to about 2.2 inches, but lowers to
1.5 to 1.9 inches for southeast GA. Scattered to widespread
showers and a few storms are expected rest of today, with the
heavier rainfall areas and best chances over inland northeast FL
and along the northeast FL coast. Much drier over inland southeast
GA. Breezy winds along the coast so far today with sustained
winds of 15-25 mph gusting to 30-33 mph.
The deep layer wind field will veer slightly tonight as the frontal
boundary stalls and 850 mb trough lifts up into central FL area
to northern FL by 12z Tuesday. This scenario, combined with the
northeast flow, and rich moisture will keep us in elevated rain
chances for a good part of northeast FL. The more persistent
rains, showers, and potential thunderstorms will be along the
northeast FL coast where localized flooding is possible. Favored
efficient rainfall pattern includes a deep warm cloud depth up to
14 kft, PWATs of 2.1 inches, and 15-20 kt flow at about 850 mb.
Some localized flash flooding is possible mainly for St Johns and
Flagler counties. Otherwise, winds should tend to weaken overnight
except stay breezy along the coast. Lows in the upper 60s to 70
inland and lower to mid 70s elsewhere with partly to mostly cloudy
skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
The meandering frontal boundary is expected to push south of the area
by midweek as high pressure continues to build toward SE GA.
Northeasterly flow throughout the period will allow for showers
and storms to push towards the coastal locations of NE FL and SE
GA. Moisture rich marine air (PWATs ~2+") moving onshore will
allow for showers and storms to develop over inland locations of
NE FL and SE GA as daytime heating increases, greatest chances for
locations along the frontal boundary over NE FL. By Wednesday,
the frontal boundary is expected to continue to shift a bit more
south which will see precipitation chances trending a bit lower
compared to Tuesday, but will still see greatest chances of
precipitation over NE FL. With the local area in between the high
pressure to the north and frontal boundary along the FL peninsula,
coastal locations are likely to experience sustained winds near
the 20 mph range, with gusts up to 30 mph on Tuesday. By
Wednesday, coastal winds will begin to lessen as the frontal
boundary shifts further south.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area on
Tuesday. By Wednesday, temperatures will begin to warm after the
frontal boundary shifts southward. Highs will be in the mid 80s
over most of SE GA, with lower to upper 80s over NE FL.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A less wet pattern during the back half of the week with the
frontal boundary shifting further toward southern FL. Drier air
(PWATs ~1") is expected to begin to advect into southeast GA as
high pressure continues to build towards the SE CONUS. With the
drier air moving into the area and the persistent northeasterly
flow, highlighting only scattered chances of precipitation across
coastal NE FL locations and north central FL from Friday and
through the weekend. Gusty conditions will also be in play High
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s by the end of the
week and through the weekend, with Friday trending to be the
warmest day this week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Periods of MVFR cigs continue with showers and isolated storms
continuing. T-storms should mainly be confined near and south of
JAX metro rest of today. Occasional MVFR cigs possible tonight
and included a TEMPO group for inland at GNV for IFR cigs, as IFR
probability rises to or just above 50 percent from about 10z-14z.
Scattered and numerous convection expected on Tuesday, but mainly
confined to northeast FL.
Pressure gradient keeping the sustained northeast winds around
15-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots at coastal airfields this
afternoon. Winds should relax into tonight but staying breezy for
SSI, CRG, and SGJ.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Winds and seas continue to increase with solid SCA conditions
developing. Winds recently up to 15-25 kt with gusts of 30 kt.
Seas are up to 5-7 ft at the buoys. Extended the SCA to coastal
waters to 20 nm from St Aug to Flagler given the observation at
SAUF1. Otherwise, the area will be between high pressure to the
north, and an inverted trough over the western Atlantic early this
week. The pressure gradient between these two features will
result in moderate to strong winds extending over the coastal
waters. The gradient will relax later in the week as the high and
trough weaken. The high will strengthen to the northeast late in
the week, with troughing to the southeast. Once again the gradient
between these features will result in elevated winds and seas.
Rip Currents: Rough surf and life-threatening rip currents along
the coast as the surf has increased compared to yesterday. Recent
report of surf was about 4-5 ft. Expect the risk to remain high
into Wed-Thu.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Peak levels so far have been about 1.2 to 1.6 ft MHHW, but with
the recent northeast surge of winds today, the high tide tonight
will be the one where minor coastal flooding is anticipated. Peak
levels of about 2 ft MHHW are expected.
After a break Wednesday and Thursday, another surge of winds will
move down the coastal waters Friday into Saturday, once again
producing potential for coastal flooding.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  65  86 /  10  30  20  10
SSI  73  80  71  81 /  40  60  50  40
JAX  73  81  70  83 /  60  80  50  60
SGJ  74  83  73  83 /  80  90  70  80
GNV  71  84  70  85 /  40  80  50  70
OCF  73  83  72  84 /  50  90  50  80
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Wednesday for FLZ124-125-138-225-233-325-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for GAZ154-166.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Wednesday for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ450-452-470-
     472.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ454.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion