Sam Rayburn, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

455
FXUS64 KLCH 201131
AFDLCH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
631 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and warm conditions will continue through Sunday.
- Better rain chances return Sunday afternoon and through much of
  next week as increasing moisture and a series of weak
  disturbances move across the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
At the surface, high pressure extends from the east, and dry air
aloft will keep our skies clear, limiting convection to isolated
instances this weekend. Aloft, weak ridging has moved to the east
with a fairly zonal pattern settling in place. With the high
pressure to our east, our winds will be southerly, and returning
moisture will lead to a steady rise in dew points. With more
moisture, rain chances will increase, but only slightly as airmass
showers and storms form in the afternoons.
Temperatures will remain summer-like with highs in the low to
mid-90s. With dew points in the 70s, our heat index values will be
in the upper 90s and will reach the triple digits to start the
week.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Our pattern will change as an upper-level low moves across the
Great Plains. The main impacts from this system will be far to our
north, but by midweek, a series of troughs will start to impact
our area. Widespread rain and thunderstorms will bring welcome
rain to the region. With the passage of this system, a conditional
severe weather threat will be possible as CAPE values will be
over 2000 J/kg when a front moves across the region. Looking at
the long-range models, we will not have the right synoptic setup
for severe weather, but there is plenty of time for conditions to
change.
Temperatures will decrease as cloud coverage and rain will drop
our highs into the upper 80s. Dew points will stay elevated as the
pressure gradient force increases from the low to the north and
high in the Gulf. For the second half of the week, dew points will
feel tropical, with heat index values getting close to 100 each
day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Areas of fog are ongoing across south-central LA and may
occasionallybring VIS down at LFT/ARA through the next hour or
so. Otherwise, light winds and mostly clear skies are expected
through the morning area-wide. This afternoon, a few isolated
showers may develop near BPT, while skies will fill in slightly
elsewhere but maintain VFR. Shower activity across SE TX will come
to an end by the evening hours, with VFR conditions prevailing
overnight at all sites.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Calm and benign conditions will continue for the rest of the
weekend. As we enter the work week, conditions will begin to
worsen as low pressure to the north increases our pressure
gradient, leading to higher winds and waves. By Monday, winds will
be gusting to 15 knots, and waves will build to 3-4 feet. Near
storms, winds and waves will be higher.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The dry weather will continue through the weekend, with minimum RH
values dropping down into the 30s. Calm winds and RH return near
100% will limit the fire danger across the region. KBDI values
above 600 and abnormally dry conditions are additional concerns.
By Monday, moisture return will bring minimum RH values back into
the 40-50% range, with widespread rain expected midweek.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  68  93  68 /   0   0  20   0
LCH  91  72  89  73 /  10  20  50  20
LFT  91  71  90  71 /   0   0  30  10
BPT  90  72  88  74 /  20  30  60  20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...17

NWS LCH Office Area Forecast Discussion