Sandisfield, Massachusetts Weather Forecast Discussion

635
FXUS61 KALY 261421
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1021 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.UPDATE...
As of 1015 AM EDT, have updated forecast to better reflect
ongoing upslope showers east of the Hudson River, and also
across the SW Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley. Some of these showers
may eventually extend into the Capital Region and upper Hudson
Valley later this morning through mid afternoon as main upper
level trough/cold pool moves across from the west. There could
be enough instability for a rumble or two of thunder across the
upper Hudson Valley early this afternoon.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Storm system will be slowly departing the region today and tonight,
with low chances of rain showers mainly across the higher terrain
this afternoon. Dry conditions will prevail elsewhere, with
temperatures generally above normal. A coastal system may bring rain
showers across the Mid Hudson Valley and northwest Connecticut
this weekend, though most will stay dry with a trend towards
cooler temperatures for early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages:
- Mainly dry today with a low chance of rain showers (10-30%)
  mainly across the high terrain this afternoon.
- Outside of a low chance of rain showers (10-30%) Saturday night
  and Sunday, mainly dry conditions through mid next week.
- Above normal temperatures through Monday, trending near normal
  by mid next week.
As of 130 AM...03z surface analysis depicted a weak surface low
centered across western New England along a stationary boundary.
Rain showers have exited the area, though low stratus remains
in place outside of river valleys, where downsloping has
promoted clearing skies. As of 100 AM, temperatures were fairly
mild with values ranging from around 60 across the high terrain
to the mid/upper 60s in river valleys.
For today and tonight, much of the area will be dry with the
system`s departure to our east and high pressure slowly building in
from the Great Lakes. A trailing positively tilted 500 hPa shortwave
will be moving across the region later this morning into the
early afternoon, with increasing CVA accompanying it.
Steepening lapse rates aloft and lift from the CVA will drive
isolated to scattered diurnal rain showers early this afternoon,
especially across the higher terrain of the ADKs and southern
Greens. Any rain that falls will be light at only a few
hundredths. It will remain fairly mild and muggy (dewpoints in
the 50s/60s) with weak northwest flow, and highs today should
easily climb into upper 60s (terrain) to upper 70s (valleys).
Lows tonight will only fall into the upper 40s (terrain) to mid
50s (valleys).
For this weekend, dry conditions will prevail for the daytime
Saturday with high pressure continuing to build over the region.
For Saturday night into Sunday, a weak shortwave moving across
the Mid Atlantic from the Southeast U.S. will drive increasing,
but low rain chances (10-30% per latest NBM) mainly for areas
south and east of the Capital District. This is low confidence
overall and is mainly being driven by the more aggressive
deterministic GFS, with the EC/CMC keeping most precipitation
across the Mid Atlantic into southern New England. Regardless,
continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Outside of these
regions, it will remain dry with continued mild temperatures in
the 60s/70s during the daytime, and overnight lows in the
40s/50s.
For early next week, mid and upper level ridging will become
more entrenched across the Great Lakes into the Northeast,
promoting continued dry weather with strong surface high
pressure building into southern Ontario and Quebec by next
Tuesday/Wednesday. In addition, a reprieve of our above normal
temperatures will arrive by Tuesday as a cold front passes
through the region. Highs in the 60s/70s and lows in the 40s/50s
are expected for Monday and Tuesday, and are projected to fall
for Wednesday with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s.
Some frost is possible by the late week for the high terrain
and outlying areas.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We start the TAF period with a variety of flying conditions as
low level clouds continue to through this morning. VFR/MVFR/IFR
conditions fluctuate between 12z and 15z. VFR conditions return
between 15z and 18z. Light and variable winds this morning
increase this afternoon between 3 and 8 knots, becoming
northwesterly to northerly. Patchy fog could develop tonight
into tomorrow morning, but forecast confidence is low at this
time to include it in the TAFs for the 6z to 12z timeframe.
Outlook...
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KL
SYNOPSIS...Speck
DISCUSSION...Speck
AVIATION...Webb

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion