Sargeant, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

650
FXUS63 KARX 192258
AFDARX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
558 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend with
  localized heavy rain at times. Rainfall amounts through the
  weekend generally in the 0.3 to 0.6" range for areas south of
  I-94 and 0.6 to 1.25" for areas to the north of I-94.
- Temperatures stay near normal with highs in the low to mid
  70s through much of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Periodic Showers and Storms Through the Weekend:
The upper level low is finally shifting east gradually. As this low
moves eastward, RAP 700mb vorticity shows impulses of shortwave
energy pass through the region with the better waves moving through
later this afternoon and evening and again on Saturday afternoon and
evening. These are the times when the highest chances for showers
and thunderstorms are likely to occur. Outside of when the more
defined waves move through, there will still enough lift and
instability for scattered showers and storms to occur. There are
some models that hint at another wave moving through Sunday evening
that could increase widespread rain chances, however exact
location and strength of this wave as well as any dry air
entraining in, is still uncertain as this will play a role in
how high the rain chances get.
Rainfall amounts through the weekend are generally in the 0.3 to
0.6" range for locations south of I-94 and 0.6 to 1.25" for areas to
the north of I-94. The HREF LPMM for 24 and 48 hours also highlights
the I-94 corridor for the potential to see up to 2 to 2.5 inches by
Sunday afternoon. While most of this rain will not fall all at once,
with PWATs generally in the 1 to 1.4" range, there will be times
when localized heavy rainfall will be possible when a heavier shower
or thunderstorm moves over.
Rain Potential Next Week:
By Monday, we are still in close enough proximity to the low that
another shortwave passes through increasing rain chances. At the
same time, another trough dips down into the central CONUS. This
trough eventually may close off and a closed low sits over the
Mid Mississippi River Valley into next weekend. There are still
some discrepancies in exact location and strength of the close
low, as well as how long it lingers near our forecast area.
Current ensemble guidance has a 60% chance that this low closes
off and sits over the Mid Mississippi River Valley Region into
next weekend. The other 40% of ensembles differ on location of
the trough and not having the trough stem away from the parent
longwave trough. Regardless if the trough does close off and
form a low, lingering rain chances may continue through much of
next week. Compared to previous forecasts, this trough has dug a
little further south lowering our rain chances for next week.
This is will be something to watch as we get closer to see how
our rain chances change. Something that is of higher confidence
is the temperature forecast. With the trough moving down next
week and the influence from the current low overhead, highs will
mostly stay in the low to mid 70s into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions currently present across the area. Two corridors
of showers and storms continue across the area: one stretching
from Red Wing, MN to Oelwein, IA and the other across West
Central Wisconsin north of the warm front. So far, the latter
corridor has been the most impressive with more ample
instability and a few reports of severe hail. Showers and storms
are expected to continue to move east/northeast through the
evening and into the overnight hours, generally on a downward
trend in intensity after sunset. Fog/mist is expected to build
in across much of the area overnight and into tomorrow morning,
with the lowest visibilities generally along and east of the
Mississippi across SW Wisconsin. Along with MVFR/LIFR CIGs,
visibilities will also drop at LSE with impacts lasting into at
least mid-morning. Conditions will gradually improve through the
morning hours. Chances for rain return for the terminals by
tomorrow afternoon, mainly after 18Z and continuing through the
end of the period.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Barendse

NWS ARX Office Area Forecast Discussion