Sasabe, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

776
FXUS65 KTWC 011939
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1239 PM MST Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will prevail this week. Afternoon high
temperatures will warm to levels about 5 degrees above normal by
Thursday and Friday before cooling back down closer to near normal
levels this weekend. Breezy southwest winds are expected this
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Sunny skies today across Arizona as high pressure continues to
build. Temperatures will continue to rise this week, peaking
tomorrow and Friday. High temperatures could surpass 100 degrees
pushing temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal. In Tucson there
is a 5% chance that high temperatures will be greater than 100
degrees tomorrow and Friday. Temperatures will cool slightly over
the weekend as a low pressure system moves into northern Arizona
from the Pacific Northwest tightening the pressure gradient and
increasing southwest winds at the surface. There is a 50-60%
chance for greater than 35 MPH wind gusts over the weekend focused
to areas from Tucson south and southeast. Relative humidities
will also be low over the weekend, between 12-20%, in the lower
valleys.
After the trough passes well to the north of us over the weekend,
high pressure begins to build again centered in Texas. This will
influence a warming trend early next week, rising temperatures
again to above normal pushing highs into the upper 90s to low
100s. In Tucson there is currently a 5% chance of greater than 100
degrees Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.
Post the middle of next week, there is uncertainty in ensemble
model projections of what may transpire. The GEFS, ECMWF, and the
Canadian hint at a tropical disturbance developing in the eastern
Pacific off the west coast of southern Mexico early Sunday.
Quickly, the models deviate in the path and intensity of such
tropical disturbance though. This is of course in the 7-10 day
forecast period so take this with a large grain of salt. Stay
tuned!
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 03/00Z.
SKC through 02/20Z becoming FEW AOA 10-12k ft AGL focused to areas
south and southeast of KTUS. SFC winds will be from the northwest
generally less than 12 kts becoming southeasterly overnight. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions prevail this week across southeast
Arizona. Winds generally south to southwest through this week
with speeds up to 15 mph and gusts up to 20-25 mph. Minimum RHs
between 15-25 percent through the week as a drier airmass becomes
more established across Southeast Arizona. Temperatures warming to
above normal levels by the second half of the week. Breezy
southwest winds will be present starting Friday through next
Monday, with the strongest wind gusts 30-35 mph expected Saturday.
&&
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Malarkey
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion