912 FXUS65 KGGW 091018 AFDGGWArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 418 AM MDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today through mid-week, as well as periods of wildfire haze and smoke.
- A storm system from the Pacific will sustain accumulating rain showers and thunderstorms this weekend across our region.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:
Even with a warm ridge of high pressure over eastern Montana, the approaching low pressure system off the US west coast has already pushed through a few subtle short-wave disturbances, leading to some scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms for our area at large. This scattered convective activity is expected to expand in coverage at times over eastern Montana through this week as approaching Pacific storm system moves into the intermountain west later this week.
This weekend, the low pressure system will slowly move through the central Rockies, generating favorable conditions for multiple rounds of widespread rain showers and thunderstorms for the greater NE Montana area. Details are still a bit unclear, but 0.25 to 0.50 rainfall accumulations looks possible for many locations.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Deviated from the NBM with more detailed hi-resolution model data for precip chances and winds for Days 1-2.
For later this week, high confidence in a wet and more active weather pattern for us locally, but average to below-average confidence for exact timing and amounts of rainfall.
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.AVIATION... Mainly VFR. Generally high pressure in control, with a few embedded upper level disturbances that set off these hit-or-miss storms through mid-week. Periods of wildfire smoke may also affect visibility.
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.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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NWS GGW Office Area Forecast Discussion