Scio Township, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

611
FXUS63 KDTX 280956
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
556 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry weather through the upcoming work week.
- Above normal in the upper 70s to low 80s through Tuesday.
- More seasonal temperatures around 70 degrees arrive mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...
A weak cold front is dropping southward through the area this
morning. It passed MBS around 09Z and will continue southward
passing through KDTW around 11Z. The front will bring some VFR
clouds around 5-6kft along with a wind shift to the north-northeast.
There was a ribbon of MVFR clouds pushing in off Lake Huron along
the front but seems to mostly wash out before affecting the taf
corridor so will not mention at the moment. Continued dry air
advection around high pressure to the north will keep skies mostly
clear after this early day round of VFR clouds scour out.
For DTW/D21 Convection...Convection is not expected through the TAF
period.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
DISCUSSION...
The main headline for the upcoming week will be the dry weather
conditions with above normal temperatures during the early week
transitioning to more normal values mid to late week.
A weak cold front will drop through southeast Michigan this morning
pushed by a central Canada shortwave. Lack of deep moisture will
offer only scattered clouds along the front. The post frontal
northeast winds will produce cooler lake augmented temperatures in
the low to mid 70s for the lakeshore areas of the Thumb and Tri-
Cities. Inland areas will experience more insolation and be able to
achieve lower 80s this afternoon. Surface high pressure slow drifts
over Michigan tonight with clear skies expected. This should allow
for a decent cool off, so will lean on the cooler side of guidance
with mid 40s across the north and low to mid 50s across the south.
Ridging aloft and at the surface carries through the early week
period with a blocked upper level pattern. The high pressure that
stagnates over the region maintains neutral thermal advection and
850 mb temperatures that range mostly from 13C to 16C for Monday and
Tuesday. This will maintain the above normal daily high temperatures
in the upper 70s to low 80s while dry weather persists. The
expectation will be in the immediate vicinity of Lake Huron where
the light northeast winds keeps temperatures slightly cooler.
Influence from a stronger surface high pressure off Hudson Bay will
be felt mid to late week as it translates across eastern Canada and
the far northeast CONUS. Cooler air is advected into southeast
Michigan from the easterly wind. This will draw temperatures down
toward more normal values in the upper 60s to low 70s to start the
month of October. Southerly component to the lower level wind on
Friday will moderate temperatures back into the mid 70s. The
continuation of very stable profiles precludes precipitation mention
into Friday.
MARINE...
High pressure drifts across the Great Lakes today, with winds
backing from NW to SW by the evening. A second high pressure system
builds in from Ontario through the rest of the week, affording an
extended stretch of dry weather. NE gradient flow develops mid-week
which brings flow onshore with gusts of 20+ knots possible Tuesday
and Wednesday.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......MV
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at www.weather.gov/detroit.

NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion