Scottsmoor, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

100
FXUS62 KMLB 201840
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
240 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- A High Risk of rip currents continues at all Atlantic beaches
  today, and will likely continue through the weekend.
- Below-normal rain and storm chances (~20-30%) continue tomorrow,
  with rain chances near to slightly above normal (~40-60%) early
  next week as moisture increases.
- Temperatures remain within a few degrees of normal through
  early next week due to persistent onshore flow.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Tonight-Sunday...Low level northeast winds will continue across the
area through the remainder of the weekend as high pressure remains
extended along the eastern U.S. seaboard. Any isolated showers (and
maybe a storm or two) that are able to develop this afternoon over
the interior will shift southwest of the area by this evening.
However, a prevailing moderate onshore flow and sufficient moisture
in the lower levels will still continue a slight (20%) chance for
onshore moving showers along the coast into tonight. A relatively
drier airmass will continue across much of the area into Sunday,
with PW values around 1.4-1.6 inches. A few onshore moving showers
will still be possible along the coast, with isolated showers and
storms developing inland during the afternoon along a diffuse east
coast sea breeze. Rain chances will range from 20% across much of
the area, except 30% across the southern Treasure Coast where deeper
moisture will begin to nudge its way northward into the afternoon.
Winds diminish and become northerly into tonight, but then increase
again out of the northeast Sunday afternoon up to around 10-15 mph
with gusts up to 20-25 mph at times. Temperatures will remain close
to normal, with lows tonight in the low to mid 70s and highs in the
mid to upper 80s at the coast and upper 80s to around 90 degrees
inland.
Monday-Tuesday...As high pressure begins to shift offshore into
early next week, low level flow veers onshore, with an approaching
mid level trough from the west allowing for a more southerly flow
aloft. This will drag deeper moisture (PW values of 2.0-2.2") back
northward across east central Florida, increasing shower and storm
chances across central FL. Scattered to numerous showers and storms
forecast, mainly during the afternoon/evening hours, with PoPs
around 40-60% Monday and 50-60% Tuesday. A few stronger storms
will be possible each day, producing frequent lightning strikes,
strong wind gusts to 40-45 mph and heavy downpours. Weaker S/SW
steering winds will lead to slower storm motion, with locally
heavier rainfall amounts of 1-3" possible. Temperatures remain
within a few degrees of normal, but humidity will be on the rise
with the increasing moisture.
Wednesday-Friday...Mid level S/W trough shifts eastward across
the area into midweek. However, there are some slight timing
differences with this, with the GFS being a little faster than the
ECMWF. This should push higher PW values east of the area, but
still maintain enough moisture for scattered afternoon/evening
shower and storm development each day. Rain chances forecast to
reside around 30-50% from Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures
will be near to a little warmer than normal through this
timeframe, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s and lows in the
low to mid 70s.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Tonight-Sunday...High pressure remains extended across the eastern
U.S. seaboard, which will keep a northeast wind flow across the
waters through the remainder of the weekend, with wind speeds up to
10-15 knots. Seas will range from 3-4 feet and shower and storm
coverage will remain below normal as a drier airmass persists across
the region.
Monday-Thursday...High pressure builds offshore the eastern U.S.
coast into next week, with winds veering to the E/NE into early next
week and generally remaining onshore into midweek. Wind speeds are
forecast to remain below 15 knots, with swells increasing to 3-5
feet Mon-Tue and then falling back to 3-4 feet Wed and 2-3 feet Thu.
Moisture gradually builds back northward into early next week, with
coverage of showers and storms increasing, becoming scattered to
numerous across the waters.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Large swath of dry air that was draped across the peninsula has been
bisected by a pocket of moisture present north of a line from
KMCO/KTIX. This has allowed for very isolated shower development
over the Atlantic waters, pushing onshore towards the southwest.
Minimal impacts are anticipated this afternoon at terminals from the
less than 20% coverage, however, opted to include VCSH mention at
TIX through the evening. Northeast winds 10-12 knots with gusts up
to 22 knots this afternoon will diminish after sunset, increasing
again beyond daybreak. Limited rain chances again on Sunday, so no
precip or TS mention in the TAF at this time. Prevailing VFR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  87  74  86 /  20  20  20  40
MCO  73  90  74  91 /  10  20  10  40
MLB  76  87  76  87 /  20  20  20  50
VRB  74  88  75  88 /  20  20  20  60
LEE  71  90  73  90 /   0  10  10  40
SFB  71  89  74  89 /  10  20  10  40
ORL  73  90  74  90 /  10  20  10  40
FPR  74  88  74  88 /  20  20  30  60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Schaper

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion