Scranton, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

858
FXUS63 KTOP 130741
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
241 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above-normal temperatures continue into early next week.
- Chances (20-50%) for showers and storms spread west to east
  across the area on Sunday. A couple of storms Sunday
  afternoon could be strong to severe across central and north
  central Kansas.
- Additional precipitation chances (30-60%) come during the middle
  of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Mid-level ridging remains in control of the Southern and Central
Plains early this morning ahead of a longwave trough across the
western CONUS. With little change in the synoptic pattern from
yesterday, a very similar day is expected with good mixing and clear
skies boosting temperatures into the 90s this afternoon.
The aforementioned western trough becomes negatively tilted as it
ejects across the Plains tonight into Sunday. The strongest forcing
and best dynamics remain north of the forecast area, but forcing is
still progged to be sufficient for showers and storms to move across
the area from west to east through the day. Instability is rather
weak initially and morning/early afternoon activity is not expected
to be severe. Lapse rates steepen and shear increases to around 30
kts across central Kansas during the afternoon. Additional
convection is progged to develop in this area and the shear-
instability parameter space could support a few strong to severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts around 60 MPH and hail up to
quarter size. Uncertainty remains in the coverage and location of
these storms and there is a chance the strongest storms stay just
west of the local area. The severe risk diminishes after sunset with
scattered showers and storms lingering into the overnight hours.
Flow becomes southwesterly Monday behind the departing wave. Dry
conditions are expected through the day Monday and highs will climb
back into the upper 80s and low 90s. A couple of perturbations
ejecting northeast in the mean flow could generate showers and
storms on Tuesday before a stronger wave advances east across the
Northern and Central Plains during the middle of next week. Rounds
of showers and storms are favored during this timeframe with a cold
front eventually progged to move through the area. Temperatures are
forecast to trend back towards climatological norms late next week,
although there is still a 10 degree spread in high temperatures
from the NBM 25th-75th percentiles given the model differences
in timing and positioning of the front.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
VFR conditions continue. Maintained LLWS mention overnight
given increasing winds in the lowest 1000 ft AGL. Surface winds
increase to 10-15 kts after sunrise this morning with occasional
gusts around 20 kts into the afternoon. Winds weaken below 10
kts late this afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Flanagan

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion