Seminole, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

930
FXUS64 KMAF 240545
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1245 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1242 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
- A cold front leads to strong winds within the Guadalupe and Delaware
  Mountains, as well as Carlsbad Caverns National Park this
  morning lasting through the afternoon hours. Take caution if
  driving through these areas or plan an alternate route!
- A couple of strong to severe storms will be possible this
  morning over portions of the Permian Basin. The main threats
  with the strongest storms will be damaging winds and locally
  heavy rainfall. Flash flood threat remains very low due to fast
  moving storms.
- Much cooler temperatures are expected today, before temperatures
  warm up beginning on Thursday.
- Near seasonable temperatures and lighter south/southeast winds
  forecast from the end of the week into the middle part of next
  week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Current satellite and radar imagery shows a cluster of
thunderstorms across southeast New Mexico moving into portions of
west Texas. Current observations also show the advertised cold
front in the northern Permian Basin gradually moving southward
into the central Permian Basin. Depending on the progression of
the cold front will determine if storms become a bit more
organized and strong, or be weaker in nature. Looking at mesoscale
parameters, the cold front will provide sufficient deep-layer
shear, however, minimal low-level shear and instability exists.
The primary threats if storms become strong will be wind gusts up
to 50-55 mph and heavy rainfall. Flash flooding does not look to
be a concern given how quickly these storms are moving, however,
if storms backbuild, then localized flash flooding will become a
threat. Nevertheless, areas across the Permian Basin and southeast
New Mexico have the greatest chance (40- 70%) in seeing
rain/storms tonight through Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts
across these areas remain fairly low, though multiple rounds of
heavy rainfall over similar locations will result in accumulations
up to 1-1.5".
Wednesday morning, the cold front progresses further south into
the higher terrain. Lift associated with the front keeps rain
chances in the forecast Wednesday until the evening hours. Rain
chances begin to significantly diminish across the Permian Basin
and southeast New Mexico, while areas along and south of the
Interstate 10 corridor see an increase in these chances (30-50%)
by the afternoon. Another to note to keep in mind, high winds are
expected across Guadalupe Pass and Carlsbad Caverns as the front
passes through early this morning. These winds (35-45 mph
sustained) are forecast to stay around until 11 AM MT/12 PM CT
today. Take caution if driving through these areas or plan an
alternate route. Much cooler temperatures are anticipated compared
to yesterday across many locations due to the cooler airmass
behind the front with highs reaching the 70s to lower 80s. Lows
Wednesday night dip into the 50s to lower 60s for most.
Thursday, upper-level ridging begins to build in from the
Rockies, while the trough ejects further to the east. The region
being in between these two features will see drier conditions and
slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s, besides a
few spots along the Rio Grande and Presidio Valley in the low to
mid 90s. Remnant moisture from the front will supply general
isolated storms across the Davis Mountains extending down into the
Big Bend region Thursday afternoon. Temperatures continue to
climb heading into the long-term, thanks to weak upper-level
ridging building into the region. See long-term discussion for
more details!
Lamberson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Mid to upper ridging will be in the process of building back over
the central CONUS, including the CWA by the end of the week, even
as as mid to upper troughing deepens over the Pacific SW into
Desert SW in association with a closed low. Southwest winds will
overspread the area aloft, transporting monsoonal moisture into
the area. Concurrently, closer to the surface there are expected
to be southerly winds with an upslope component near lee troughing
over SE NM into W TX. This will provide lift and moisture for low
to medium (25%-45%) probability of showers/storms developing over
westernmost higher terrain from Guadalupes down into Presidio
Valley, with lesser amounts farther to the east. Increased large
scale sinking motion in association with building ridging allows
highs to rise back into the upper 80s F to lower 90s F, while
highs remain in the upper 70s F to lower 80s F for higher
elevations, and mid to upper 90s F for the Big Bend. Despite the
warmer temperatures, southerly winds, and increased low level
clouds from showers/storms, lows Friday night still remain below
70 F except along the Rio Grande, as boundary layer moisture/dew
point temperatures will remain lower than earlier this month when
similar daytime temperatures occurred.
Building ridging over the area will be short lived as the closed
circulation over the Pacific SW develops east. Winds Saturday back
more to the southeast, with the increased upslope near surface
flow resulting in low to medium (25%-40%) rain probabilities
expanding into western Eddy County, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend,
with low (15%-25%) probability of showers/storms SE NM plains
into Upper Trans Pecos and Terrell County. However, more zonal
flow aloft will minimize any major warmup or cooldown, so highs
Saturday through next Tuesday have trended closer to highs on
Friday, while less southerly winds transport less warm air into
the area and maintain lows each night in the lower to mid 60s F,
mid to upper 50s F higher elevations and usual cooler spots of
western Eddy County, Lea County, and northwest Permian Basin, with
lows near or at 70 F confined to the Rio Grande. Low to medium
rain probabilities decline back to a more diurnal low (25%-30%)
pattern over higher elevations of Guadalupes and Davis Mountains
Monday. Rainfall is still on track to have a medium to high
probability of amounts at least 0.50" to 0.75" over western higher
terrain, especially Davis Mountains and Guadalupes, with only a
few tenths to few hundredths elsewhere. By Tuesday, ridging aloft
building over the Desert SW again results in near zero rain
chances and temperatures warming back into the upper 80s F to
lower 90s F for most of the area. Overall, we can expect a
seasonable if not slightly above average temperature pattern into
next week, with possibility of heavy rain over western higher
terrain being the biggest impact in the long term. We will work
out more details on this possible heavy rain event as we get
closer to the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Mesoanalysis shows the cold front just north of KMAF, and hi-res
models continue developing MVFR all terminals later
tonight/Wednesday morning. Latest model guidance suggests these
cigs will hit KMAF as early as 11Z, and persist at KFST through
22Z or so as the front moves south. A chance of convection will
accompany the front at all terminals.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               82  58  83  59 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 77  58  85  61 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   89  68  88  65 /  40  30  10   0
Fort Stockton            78  61  85  63 /  50  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass           69  57  77  61 /  20  10  10  10
Hobbs                    78  54  82  59 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                    75  55  79  55 /  40  10  20  10
Midland Intl Airport     80  60  83  61 /  50  10   0   0
Odessa                   79  59  82  61 /  40  10   0   0
Wink                     79  58  84  61 /  30  10   0   0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ early this morning to
     noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today for Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.
NM...High Wind Warning from 4 AM to 11 AM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...99

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion