Seward, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

936
FXUS63 KDDC 150541
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1241 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms northeast and southeast zones Sunday
  afternoon and evening. Some storms may be severe, with hail
  the primary risk.
- Dry and seasonably warm Monday afternoon.
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Tuesday night
  through Wednesday with the next trough and cold front. Cooler
  temperatures Wednesday afternoon in the 70s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Midlevel trough axis was arriving in SW KS as of midday. Clouds
and rain showers associated with the warm conveyor belt were
slowly exiting the eastern counties. Mesoanalysis showed
instability growing across SW KS, as full insolation interacts
with cool midlevel temperatures to -12C at 500 mb. Scattered
thunderstorms will redevelop after 4 pm, with model consensus
suggesting coverage will be favored across the northeast and
southeast zones. CAPE near/exceeding 2000 J/kg is expected by
peak heating, with shear within the arriving trough sufficient
for organized multicell/marginal supercell modes. Hail 1-1.5
inches in diameter will be the primary risk from any
thunderstorm this afternoon/evening. In particular, areas to
watch for the most robust development will be along the I-70
corridor, where flow and shear will be modestly improved to
support a brief weak tornado/landspout risk, and southeast of
DDC including the Red Hills, where SPC added 15% hail/wind
probability at 1630z. Elsewhere, with more W/SWly boundary layer
flow, most other zones are expected to remain dry.
Subsidence takes over quickly after midnight behind the
departing trough axis, with a mostly clear sky sunrise Monday,
with temperatures in the 50s west, 60s east. Monday promises to
be dry for all of SW KS, with no forcing beneath quiet zonal
midlevel flow. Afternoon temperatures will be very near mid
September normals, in the mid 80s. Daylight Tuesday will also
feature more of the same, dry and seasonably warm in the
afternoon, in the upper 80s. The next positively tilted trough
is forecast to organize over the central/northern Rockies
Tuesday, but most locations will be dry through 7 pm Tuesday.
Model guidance agrees forcing for ascent will increase Tuesday
night through Wednesday, as the next trough spreads southeast
into Kansas. Within this time window, models disagree when rain
and storms will be most widespread, with NBM and 12z ECMWF
currently suggesting early Wednesday morning (pops in likely
category). Still, at least scattered showers and thunderstorms
are probable all day Wednesday, as lift ahead of the approaching
trough axis increases, and the associated cold front boundary
arrives acting as a trigger. Pops will probably be raised to the
likely category for Wednesday on later forecast updates; did
notice NBM pops did trend upward Wednesday afternoon/evening on
the latest run. Typical of late summer, shear and instability
will be modest at best, but certainly some strong to marginally
severe storms are possible both Tuesday and Wednesday evenings.
Primary concern will be locally heavy rainfall once again, as
this wet summer continues. Clouds and cool advection behind the
cold front will also lower temperatures Wednesday, reduced to
the 70s.
Thursday and Friday are expected to be dry, as a subsident
regime prevails. As a closed midlevel cyclone sinks southeast
through the northern plains, NWly flow will be maintained,
preventing the return of any heat. Pleasant afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s expected Thursday
and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Southerly winds are expected to remain below 10 knots overnight
under clear skies. A surface boundary currently situated
between Dodge City and Garden City at 04Z is forecast to
retrograde west overnight. Given the moisture pooling just east
of this boundary, there is a chance for a narrow band of early
morning fog and/or low clouds (below 1000ft AGL) to develop
wherever this boundary ends up. Short term models have shown
good agreement over the past several hours that the most
favorable area for this fog and low status will be just west of
the Liberal and Garden City areas. However considering the
current boundary location and light winds early Monday morning
am currently favoring at least a temporary period of IFR
visibility to be possible between 10Z and 14Z in the Garden City
and Liberal areas. After 14Z the southerly winds will slowly
shift to the southeast and increase to 10 to 15 knots. VFR
conditions are expected to continue throughout Monday afternoon
and evening.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Burgert

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion