Sharpe, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

480
FXUS63 KPAH 210601
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
101 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Start week high temperatures in the lower-middle 80s will cool
  into the 70s by and for the back half of the week.
- Robust and widespread average cumulative week-long rainfall
  amounts totalling 2-3" look increasingly likely. While
  isolated higher amounts may bring a localized flood risk, this
  is a mostly spread out rain event whose chief impact will be
  to bring much welcomed drought relief.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
The transition to a more active and wetter pattern is ongoing.
Subtle height falls are modeled as a reflection of the primary
synoptic scale cyclone that moves in over the course of the week,
with a number of pieces of pva energy channeling within the
dips in the flow pattern as this metamorphosis occurs with
time. These will promote convective chances again today, similar
to the past 2 days, and for the foreseeable future, as the
primary long wave low increases with its dominant influence upon
our sensible wx. High pops persist with its persistence thru
the mid week period, with peak high pops daily most likely
during the best charged max heating hours of the afternoons-
evenings. Chances have grown for a likelihood of 2 inch
accumulative average rainfall and chances for upwards to 3"
amounts or locally better have not abated. As a result, WPC has
moved us from MRGL to SLGT on the ERO by the middle of the week.
Since it`s spread out daily and not too much in any one 24 hour
period, it`s looking better and better that its main impact is
drought relief.
Thanks to the clouds from such high convective chances, the
cool-down in high temperatures remains in the forecast. Low-mid
80s to start the week work their way slightly below climo
norms, into the 70s, by the back half of the week. Strong storm
chances are isolated to widely scattered, with an added hazard
of gusty winds to the more predominant, commonplace heavy rain
and lightning hazards.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
CAM modeling suggests the upstream convection along the MO/AR
border will continue its E-SE track early this morning, staying
mostly south of the terminals. While some cells may maintain,
the modeling suggests an overall wane to the activity...thus the
temporary restrictions to vsbys with lower Visual Flight Rules
cigs is maintained. Similar to past days, additional convective
chances may impact any/all terminals during the peak heating
hours, offering further flight restrictions potential.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion