Shell Point, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

676
FXUS64 KSHV 131123
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
623 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
- High pressure will keep rain chances low and temperatures high
   through the weekend into next week across the Four State
   Region.
- Outdoor humidity will remain low enough to limit more
   dangerous heat, but temporarily enhance wildfire and drought
   development risks further into September.
- Increased rain chances will slowly return to portions of the
   region by the end of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Persistent ridging aloft will control weather conditions across
the Four State Region through the next seven days. This will keep
the atmosphere suppressed enough for almost no rainfall through
the same period with variably light winds and above-normal
temperature maximums for this time of the year (upper 90s). The
only reprieve from more dangerous heat will come from dew points
remaining in the upper 60s/lower 70s with medium-range guidance
suggesting lower 60s into next week as the ridge axis begins to
break down across the Midwest into the Lower Mississippi River
valley after the middle of next week. That said, this gradually
drier air will become more of a concern for enhanced fire weather
and drought development into next week. Long-range guidance
suggests further degradation of this ridging that opens the door
for a synoptic pattern change to troughing across the Great
Plains, and enhances our chances of rain into late September. /16/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
For the 13/12z TAF update...Radar imagery had a lone storm
tracking through north central Louisiana this morning well to the
south of KMLU and is not expected to impact any terminals at this
time. That being said, KMLU has been our only terminal this
morning to drop in visibility from BR this morning. Still not
thinking it will be enough to carry it for an extended period of
time so I have prevailed SKC for all terminals this morning. By
13/16z we should have another cu field develop across the region,
so I have maintained mention of SCT050 for the late morning and
through the afternoon hours. Winds will remain light throughout
this TAF period. /33/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  97  73  96  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  96  68  95  68 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  93  68  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  96  71  95  71 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  96  67  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  93  72  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  94  70  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  95  70  94  70 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...33

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion