Shenango, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

993
FXUS61 KPBZ 281744
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
144 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather prevails through next week under high pressure.
Above normal temperatures to start the week will cool to more
seasonable values by week`s end.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues under high pressure.
- Patchy dense fog is possible again late tonight.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Dry conditions are maintained through the near term period as
high pressure continues to build into the Great Lakes. Little
change in conditions tonight compared to last night favors a
persistence forecast. Hi-res ensemble guidance is in agreement
and suggests potential for patchy dense fog development once
again late tonight into early Monday morning, with the best
chances (around 40-60%) generally north and west of Pittsburgh.
This is because a thickening deck of high clouds is forecast to
move into the area from southeast to northwest Monday morning,
and if those clouds arrive earlier than expected they could
inhibit radiative cooling (and subsequent fog development) for
areas south and southeast of Pittsburgh.
Lows tonight will be similar to last night - mid to upper 50s
for most, except north of I-80 where low 50s are forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and warm on Sunday and Monday
- Increased cloud coverage Monday
- Rain from tropical system expected to stay to our south
----------------------------------------------------------------
Another dry and unseasonably warm day on Monday as the surface high
gradually weakens but remains in control. The only notable
difference will be an increase in cloud coverage from the southeast
with moisture extending north from Tropical Depression Nine. Highs
are thus likely to be just a touch cooler than Sunday, especially
south and east of Pittsburgh where cloud cover resides for more of
the day.
Fog development is likely to be much less Monday night as cloud
cover builds and prohibits efficient radiating. Low temperatures as
a result will be in the upper 50s to near 60 in the urban areas
which is about 10 degrees above normal.
All ensembles continue to support high pressure quickly building and
sinking south through Ontario on the heels of the weekend`s
departing high. Daily trends continue to favor a stronger, quicker
building high which favors a dry, warmer solution locally as TD9
turns east offshore of the Carolinas. Skies will remain cloudy,
especially for Pittsburgh south and east, wit some more uncertainty
with how far north and west the cloud shield extends. Despite the
light northeast flow and clouds, little airmass modification is
expected so probability for highs again reaching 80 degrees is at 70-
80% where clouds will be less prevalent. Latest NBM continues to
back off rain mention for nearly all of our area with only a slight
chance creeping into Tucker County early Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Prevailing dry weather with temperatures trending closer to normal
  by mid to late week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
With the increased cloud coverage, temperatures are likely to fall
off closer to normal (low 70s) by mid-week as the placement of the
surface high promotes cool, dry northerly flow. Rain chances through
week`s end are nil as all ensembles exhibit good agreement on the
high sinking into the New England region and strengthening quite a
bit as it does so. Headed into the weekend, the upper level pattern
amplifies with strong ridging overhead as longwave troughing
establishes across the western CONUS. Aside from some weaknesses
riding atop the ridge, ensemble clusters favor it to remain strong,
and the surface high stays well established overhead. Temps may
moderate a bit by next weekend but dry weather prevails.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR prevails throughout the TAF period, with the exception of
patchy dense fog being possible once again in the 08z-13z
timeframe. Hi-res ensemble guidance suggests as high as a
40-60% chance for IFR or worse visibilities generally around and
north/west of PIT. Farther south and east (e.g., LBE/MGW),
there is greater uncertainty in fog development since high
clouds are forecast to overspread the area from the southeast
early Monday and could inhibit radiative cooling in those areas
during the time when fog would otherwise be developing. Will
need to monitor cloud cover trends and adjust mention of fog in
future TAF cycles accordingly.
.OUTLOOK....
VFR is expected through late week under high pressure. The
exception to this will be patchy early morning fog, which will
need to be handled on a day-by-day basis depending on near-
surface moisture trends.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Cermak/MLB
NEAR TERM...Cermak/88
SHORT TERM...MLB
LONG TERM...MLB
AVIATION...Cermak

NWS PBZ Office Area Forecast Discussion