671 FXUS64 KMEG 091128 AFDMEGArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 628 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 626 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
- Hot and dry conditions return this week with temperatures climbing back into the 90s.
- Ongoing drought conditions will worsen by the end of the week.
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.DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 1043 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Summertime temperatures return to the Mid-South today as an Omega Block pushes into central CONUS. Southerly surface winds will advect much warmer air into the region today with highs reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s. Unfortunately, temperatures will continue to warm through the end of the week as the aforementioned Omega Block dominates the synoptic pattern. By Thursday, afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 90s. The good news in relation to this forecast: dewpoints will remain in the lower 60s. As such, heat indices will remain well below heat headline threshold.
Precipitation chances are few and far between for the next week or so as surface high pressure prevails. Given prolonged dry conditions, areas of the Mid-South will likely see an upgrade to D2 severe drought conditions by the end of the week.
ANS
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.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
High pressure over the OH River Valley will give way to light east/southeast winds at the surface and continued VFR conditions.
CAD
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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1043 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Elevated fire danger will exist this week as MinRH values remain in the 30 percent range. This, combined with dry fuels, will produce conditions conducive for easy fire development. The good news: 20ft winds will remain 5-10 mph, so any fire that does ignite should not spread quickly.
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.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
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PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS AVIATION...CAD
NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion