Siesta Key, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

462
FXUS62 KTBW 131419
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1019 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1019 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Nice dry sounding this morning, with 1.11 inches PWats, clear
conditions across the area, and dew points generally in the lower
70s. N/NE flow in place today becoming gusty in the afternoon and
a few showers and storms possible mainly inland and south later in
the day. Highs on track to reach into the upper 80s for highs.
Drier conditions will linger into mid-week as an upper trough
remains across the region with surface ridging across the area and
the remnant boundary to the south. Moisture then spreads
northward for the second half of the week as an upper shortwave
moves over the state. Current forecast is on track and have no
updates planned.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1015 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
N/NE flow increasing through the rest of the morning and becoming
gusty in the afternoon. VFR conditions prevail. Have no rain
chances in the forecast as chances are too low, but a stray
shower is possible in the afternoon/evening at the inland and
southern terminals.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1019 AM EDT Sat Sep 13 2025
SCEC in place across the central and northern waters through
tomorrow morning. Winds should then remain around 15 kts or less
through the rest of the period. Weak ridging will remain through
mid-week across the waters with drier conditions keeping rain
chances lower. Current forecast is on track with this and have
little change for the update.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  73  89  72 /  20  10  20   0
FMY  89  71  89  73 /  40  20  30  10
GIF  89  70  89  71 /  30  10  30   0
SRQ  88  70  89  71 /  20  20  20  10
BKV  89  67  89  66 /  20  10  20   0
SPG  87  73  87  73 /  20  20  20  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis

NWS tbw Office Area Forecast Discussion