Skandia, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

613
FXUS63 KMQT 061842
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
242 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool conditions for the first half of this week; a widespread
freeze is possible for inland areas Tuesday night. Frost and/or
freeze conditions will be possible again Wednesday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Early this afternoon the upper level ridge responsible for the
recent warm weather was now over the east coast with troughing
extending from the Hudson Bay southwest into the Northern Plains and
central Rockies. Satellite imagery showed clouds continuing to
stream northeast through the eastern U.P behind the cold front that
passed through the area last night into this morning. Over the
central and west breaks in the clouds had developed. There was
enough instability for lake effect clouds off Lake Superior but
dry air and low inversion heights kept the convection shallow
and precip free. Temperatures this afternoon were much closer to
seasonal averages, mainly in the 50s.
For tonight, an upper level jet streak moves across the area
providing lift for at least some elevated showers this evening over
the central and eastern U.P. With dry air in the low levels it could
be hard for the precipitation to make it to the surface over the
central U.P but kept chance PoPs there with likely PoPs over
the east.
There is a chance for frost tonight over the interior with clearing
skies late tonight. However, a pre-frontal trough moving through the
area might be enough to keep winds from going calm and decoupling of
the boundary layer. With considerable uncertainty maintained the
NBM low temperatures for tonight.
Through midweek the trough will slowly move east through the Great
Lakes. Afternoon highs closer to seasonal averages are expected
through Wednesday. With subsidence at the base of the trough plenty
of clear skies and dry weather is expected. The combination of dry
air, clear skies and light winds will make opportunities for
frost and freeze conditions for the inland areas, especially in
the central and west. Have issued a Freeze Watch for Tuesday
night across much of the U.P with the exception of the Keweenaw
and far east. NBM MinT probabilities for 006-009>014-084-085.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...NL
AVIATION...77
MARINE...NL

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion