Slab Fork, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

279
FXUS61 KRLX 291554
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1154 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure provides dry weather through much of the
week. A tropical system becomes a hurricane off the Florida
coast on Tuesday, then heads east further into the Atlantic.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1130 AM Monday...
With high pressure at the surface and aloft the area is widely
supported by fair weather and sunny skies although the cirrus
shield from Tropical Storm Imelda is invading the area from east
to west across much of West Virginia. We cannot rule out some
isolated rain shower activity along the mountains due to
activity from T.S. Imelda into Tuesday afternoon.
Even a small chance of thunderstorm activity is possible in
southwest Virginia during Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will
remain above seasonbale through the period with mainly clear
skies across the western portions of the area with mid to high
clouds across the eastern portions overnight which will aid in
the development of valley fog once again as winds relax and go
calm.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1130 AM Monday...
During this period high pressure will dominate as an impressive
Omega Block pattern moves in directly overhead of our region.
This pattern will stabilized the atmosphere and promote dry
weather with mainly clear skies for this period and beyond.
Temperatures will moderate some by Thursday and become average
for this time of year from then on.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1130 AM Monday...
The aforementioned high pressure system will hold in place
according to medium range models for what seems like it will
last through the weekend promoting more dry and relatively
cloud free skies with temperatures rising slightly to above
seasonable by the end of the weekend. This period of long dry
weather will add to drought conditions across the area as there
will be no rain in the forecast for the extended period as well
as beyond this period.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM Monday...
IFR/LIFR conditions under dense river valley fog, evident on
satellite imagery, METARs and webcams, will gradually lift or
dissipate by 14-15Z. Then, high pressure, at the surface and
aloft, will provide widespread VFR conditions through at least
midnight.
High clouds, associated with the outer bands of T.S. Imelda,
will stream north northeast along the Appalachians today. Some
of these clouds could extend further west into central WV, but
additional effects are not expected.
Dense fog overnight tonight may be possible wherever skies clear.
Otherwise, thicker cloudiness should suppress radiational
cooling and associated IFR/LIFR dense fog development.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high with fog overnight tonight
into Tuesday morning, otherwise high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving restrictions due to
dense fog may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR is possible with river valley fog each morning through Friday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...ARJ

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion