Slick Rock, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

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FXUS65 KGJT 171133
AFDGJT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
533 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and storms develop over the higher terrain along and
  north of I-70 during the afternoon today.
- Temperatures will be below normal before a warmup kicks in
  towards the end of the week.
- Moisture returns this weekend but confidence in the extent
  and timing remains low at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 117 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Precipitation has ended across the region as the nearby low
pressure system continues to move east of the Rockies, as shown
by satellite imagery. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
today, primarily north of I-70, where moisture lingers and a
lobe of energy off of the low pressure system moves through.
Overnight Wednesday into Thursday flow will shift to dry and
northerly, keeping PoPs near zero Thursday afternoon while PWATs
drop to 50-75% of normal across the CWA. High temperatures stay
below normal through the short term before a warmup later this
week.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 117 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A ridge of high pressure will be over the CWA at the start of the
long term period but will start shifting east as a shortwave
approaches from the southwest. Southwesterly flow ahead of the
shortwave will allow moisture to increase down south before
spreading across the entire CWA by late Friday night. While moisture
will increase, ensembles are indicating the shortwave will lose much
of its characteristics and this will allow a few showers, maybe a
quick storm to fire over SE Utah and the southern valleys Friday but
not much else is expected. Residual moisture will linger across the
area Saturday and Sunday and will be worked on by a couple of weak
waves through the weekend bringing some isolated showers/storms to
the northern half of the CWA. After that, a broad area of high
pressure sets up across the desert southwest which will bring plenty
of sunny skies and warm temperatures to the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Clear skies remain across the area this morning and will
continue through 18Z, give or take. Some convection will be
possible at KEGE and KASE so included them in PROB30 groups.
Elsewhere, some mid to high level clouds will drift across the
area. VFR conditions will remain predominant through the period.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GF
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT

NWS GJT Office Area Forecast Discussion