Smartt, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

310
FXUS64 KOHX 200512
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1212 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
- Above normal temperatures continue, especially daytime highs
  which will be mostly upper 80s to lower 90s through the
  weekend.
- Isolated storms on Saturday with better chances for scattered
  rainfall next week with a gradual cool down.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday Night)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
An upper level ridge has provided Middle TN with a long pattern
of very warm and mainly dry conditions. A weak disturbance coupled
with increasing column moisture initiated a few thunderstorms west
of I-65 late Friday. A couple of those storms had localized heavy
rainfall, half inch hail, and borderline severe wind gusts.
As we go through Saturday, we will again bump up rain chances
slightly above NBM, resulting in 20 to 30 pops. Forcing looks
pretty weak, but forecast soundings show the moisture and
instability from our western counties spreading area-wide. With
afternoon heating, a few strong storms may develop with small
hail, gusty winds over 40 mph, and localized rainfall totals
exceeding 2 inches, mainly due to slow storm motion. Yet with just
20-30 pops, most areas will remain hot and dry.
For Saturday night and Sunday, additional moisture pooling will
occur and a few more weak disturbances will impinge on the
weakening ridge. Coverage of showers and storms will increase a
little more with a continued risk for a strong storm here and
there, mainly in the heat of the afternoon and early evening.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1120 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Although some model difference continue through next week, the
depicted patterns are trending into better agreement among
ensemble members. A pattern change will become evident Monday and
Tuesday as a series of disturbances and increasing moisture brings
increasing shower and storm chances and a slight lowering of high
temperatures. A more significant trough is expected to take shape
to our west Wednesday and Thursday with models trending upward on
rain coverage and cloudiness and downward on temperatures. The
latest forecast shows medium to high rain coverage Wednesday and
Thursday with rainfall forecasts for those days possibly exceeding
2 inches area-wide! If this pans out it will be much appreciated
with dry conditions plaguing many areas. The more rainy and
cloudy pattern will bring temps down with highs from the mid 70s
to lower 80s which is near normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
With the rain earlier at CKV, expect drop in vis to occur. Minimum
IFR through 11Z. Have also included PROB30 for late Saturday
afternoon. Expect MVFR at CSV for several hours before sunrise, as
well. Otherwise, VFR conditions at mid-state terminals with light
winds.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  69  90  68 /  20  20  30  40
Clarksville    94  66  90  66 /  30  30  30  40
Crossville     84  62  82  62 /  20  20  40  30
Columbia       93  67  91  66 /  30  20  30  40
Cookeville     87  65  85  64 /  20  20  30  20
Jamestown      86  64  83  63 /  20  20  40  20
Lawrenceburg   91  65  89  65 /  20  20  30  30
Murfreesboro   93  67  89  66 /  20  20  40  30
Waverly        91  66  89  65 /  30  20  40  40
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Unger

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion