Smiley, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

535
FXUS64 KEWX 131116
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
616 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures to remain above normal with only a very low
  chance for rain across portions of the coastal plains westward
  to the Rio Grande.
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
Water vapor satellite imagery and sounding data from KDRT shows
dry air in place in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere,
especially between 700-300mb as noted on the 13/00Z profile.
While there is some moisture in the lower levels, a fairly stout
cap of mid-level dry and warm air will likely limit any
convection from developing across our region today. On Sunday,
an upper trough axis moves out of the southern Rockies into the
southern plains. This may allow for a weak upper disturbance to
move in from the west. With the weak disturbance and adequate
moisture, we will keep a low chance for afternoon showers and
storms in the forecast for Val Verde county southward to Eagle
Pass. Little change in temperatures is anticipated through the
remainder of the weekend, with highs generally in the mid 80s to
mid 90s along with lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
The weather pattern through much of the upcoming weekend will be
largely dominated by the mid and upper level subtropical ridge
in place across northern Mexico into western and southern Texas.
Little change from the temperatures mentioned above are
expected, resulting in above normal warmth. We could see a
stray shower or storm across our southern areas during the
afternoon hours on Wednesday through Friday. The favored
location for any of this activity will be from the coastal
plains westward into the Rio Grande plains.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through the morning hours
at DRT followed by VFR through this evening. MVFR may return
again Sunday morning at DRT but confidence is too low to include
at this time. Elsewhere, VFR ceilings and light winds continue
through mid-late morning before breezy east-southeast winds
return.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  96  72  95 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  95  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     70  96  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            69  91  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  92  74  94 /  10  20   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  94  69  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             69  94  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  96  68  96 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  94  68  94 /   0  10   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  95  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           73  96  72  96 /   0   0   0  10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Platt
LONG TERM...Platt
AVIATION...MMM

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion