Smugglers Notch, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

055
FXUS61 KBTV 060641
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
241 AM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cooler and more unsettled weather pattern is in store for this
weekend. Widespread rainfall will occur today, with Vermont seeing
the most consistent precipitation. A few showers are possible
tomorrow, but anything would be brief and much more restricted in
coverage. Drier and cooler weather will prevail for much of next
week as high pressure becomes well established across the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Saturday...A cold front has pushed into the region,
bringing a broken line of showers to northern areas. The back end of
a low level jet is in place, and the showers were just strong enough
to mix some of these winds to the ground in places, with observed
wind gusts on Lake Champlain up to around 50 mph. These showers and
the low level jet will pass to the east within the next couple hours
and mostly dry weather will persist for the rest of the night. The
cold front will become hung up over the region later tonight, and
with the boundary staying around, a couple isolated showers may
continue to form. A surface low has developed along this front over
the central Appalachians and it will quickly move into the region
today. It will bring widespread stratiform precipitation to most
areas. However, the front will likely stall somewhere over central
Vermont so southeastern Vermont will likely stay in the warm sector.
Therefore, as the cold front moves through on the backside of the
low, some convection will develop in those areas. While the greatest
instability will exist to the southeast, there remains a low
probability of seeing strong to severe storms there. Instability
will be low, but shear and synoptic forcing will be strong. Rainfall
totals should generally be between a quarter to a half inch, though
there will likely be lower amounts in the ST. lawrence Valley where
the precipitation will struggle to reach. The rain will exit to the
east for most areas by evening, though it could linger over far
eastern areas into the night. Saturday night has to be watched for
fog as partial clearing will interact with a saturated ground and
weaker flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Saturday...Large scale troughing builds into the
region for Sunday and Monday, bringing cooler conditions. A vort
looks to pass through northern areas Sunday and cause a few
scattered showers, but after that surface high pressure will build
into the region. Skies should clear by Monday morning for most
areas, but continuing boundary layer winds should keep the frost
potential at bay in the cold hollows Sunday night. As high pressure
builds into the region for Monday, winds will decrease and set the
stage for efficient radiational cooling Monday night. Highs on these
days should be in the 60s to around 70, so enjoy the classic early
fall weather.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Saturday...High pressure is strongly favored to
build over the region Tuesday through Thursday with light southerly
surface flow in general. Persistent ridging and dry conditions will
allow for temperatures to trend warmer through mid week with highs
likely ranging in the 70s. Guidance becomes more split late in the
week on timing, placement, and amount of moisture associated with a
cold front. Given the likely position of the ridge centered over the
mid west, precipitation could occur, but blended guidance keeps
drier conditions prevailing. Either way, a surface front is probable
to edge through the Northeast switching winds back out of the north
with temperatures cooling again by Friday. Best shower chances will
be along higher terrain late Thursday, but meaningful amounts look
very unlikely.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A line of showers moving through 06-08Z will mark the end of LLWS,
but will bring some gusty sfc winds 25-35kts in general with
potential for up to 40kts from the south switching to the west.
Currently this line is tracking just east of BTV and beginning to
fall apart, so impacts will likely be less for MPV/EFK. West flow
will shift back southerly becoming light for the remainder of the
overnight period. The next front will move through 15-22Z bringing
chances for mainly MVFR during showers, but some chances of IFR
should a heavier shower/thunderstorm move over a terminal. After
22Z, winds become light with skies beginning to clear.
Outlook...
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion