154 FXUS61 KCTP 101855 AFDCTPArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 255 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS... * A mainly dry and seasonable weather pattern is expected to continue for much of the next 8 days * The exception may be when light showers may fall over the northern half of PA Sat night-Sun night as a front nears/passes
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Low clouds in the SE seem like they will be re-established as we stratify and weak NNE flow keeps some moisture incoming. Everyone else will be clear and calm overnight. Dewpoints and expected mins are a little higher overnight, but the normal nrn valley fog will happen again.
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.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure continues to rule. We have very little reason to deviate from the forecast of excellent (albeit very dry) weather served up by the NBM. What is left of the morning clouds over the SE will slink away to the S and dissipate. Only isold/sct cu will pop up over the Alleghenies Thursday.
Friday and Saturday look a deg or two warmer, pushing us up to 5-10F warmer than normal across the board. RH will dip to the 30s and perhaps U20s each aftn. Without appreciable wind, there is no worry for red flag conditions. But, the recent departures from normal precip have resulted in a return to D1 drought conditions for the Alleghenies.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A northern stream front will push in from the Upper Great Lakes for the second half of the weekend. The system is starved of moisture and will only get drier as it hits PA and our parched ground. Expect only sct SHRA from Sat night into late Sunday or Sunday night. QPF is just about as low as you would think in this pattern. Very few pixels of >0.10" to be seen on any models or ensemble mean solutions. The front slows as it gets just to the coast and a low pressure center may hang out near NJ. That might try to throw a shower back into ern PA, but that is not worth a 15 PoP for Monday. Dry thereafter as another sprawling high pressure area slides in from the N/W.
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.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Marine moisture in the SE has thinned out with VFR everywhere at 1830Z. However, with stabilization and weak NNE flow below FL030, there should be a re-establishment of lower clouds for LNS and MDT tonight. Probability of
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