Sparta, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

042
FXUS61 KRNK 091038
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
638 AM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A period of tranquil early autumn weather is in store for the
central Appalachians this week as a strong high pressure system
settles over the region. Residents can expect comfortable and
mild afternoon temperatures. However, overnight and early
morning hours will be notably cooler, bringing a crisp feel to
the air.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1) Autumn weather continues
Pattern features a 5h trough axis over the lower Ohio Valley
into the Deep South, with southerly flow aloft while at the
surface, high pressure wedges southward from New England. Aside
from some high clouds into the Piedmont today, should be sunny
with again low humidity. After a chilly start to some areas,
temps should climb into the 70s for most this afternoon, with
some 60s in the higher mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1) Quiet weather continues with subtle warming later this week.
A surface low pressure system off the east coast will make its way
northeast during the work week but it is not expected to impact the
region in any way. Forecast from yesterday has not changed much. A
surface high pressure system to the northeast will move eastward and
the wedging against the mountains will deteriorate a little.
Residual higher pressure will remain before being reinforced and
re- wedged by another surface high over eastern Canada.
Conditions are expected to be quiet for the rest of the week as
a result with only a small uptick in temperatures. Dew points
were noticeably lower than what model guidance suggested on
Monday due to mixing and have been adjusted for the next few
days. While dew points will be in the 40s and 50s for most of
the region, some areas along and west of the Blue Ridge could
see dew points as low as the upper 30s. An upper level trough is
forecast to pass through the eastern coast this week, but with
so little moisture and lack of instability, no precipitation is
expected. Only significant change in the weather will be a shift
from clear skies to partly cloudy as we progress through the
week.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday...
Key Message:
1) Calm weather continues into the weekend and possibly early next
week.
Similar to the short term forecast, the surface high pressure system
northeast of us and over Canada is expected to move eastward and the
wedge is forecast to degrade again. By this weekend, a large upper
level low steers towards the Great Lakes while a separate low forms
off the east coast again. Unfortunately, past this the forecast
becomes uncertain as there is a lot of model disagreement for early
next week. Where these lows go and how they impact the region is
very unclear. As for temperatures, there looks to be a small warming
trend and increase in moisture. High temperatures will be close to
seasonal averages between the lower 70s to lower 80s and lows will
likely be in the upper 40s to mid-50s. Dew points may creep up to
the lower 50s and lower 60s by early next week with higher values
east of the Blue Ridge. Precipitation chances are still likely to
remain low with partly cloudy skies to persist at least into the
weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 AM EDT Tuesday...
Expecting mostly VFR through the valid 24 hour TAF period. Some
early morning fog is possible in the mountain valleys (LWB),
but it should dissipate quickly after 12Z. Fog possible again
before 12z Wed at LWB.
Winds will be light/calm this morning, increasing to 10 to 20
knots by mid to late morning out of ENE, with the stronger gusts
at LYH/DAN. Winds weaken again toward 23z. Some broken cigs at
LYH/DAN late tonight in the 5-10kft range as moisture surges in
as far west as a GSO-CHO line with a low offshore, but still
VFR.
.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions expected through the week, outside any patchy
late night/early morning fog.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...PM/WP

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion