Spokane, Washington Weather Forecast Discussion

889
FXUS66 KOTX 220803
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
103 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sunday cold front to deliver cooler temperatures, windy
  conditions, and chances for light showers.
- Another ridge forms Monday into Tuesday, with temperatures
  warming back into the 80s by Wednesday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly overnight lows expected Sunday night and Monday night
and in some spots again Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Temperatures warm again under a ridge of high pressure Tuesday
and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Wednesday: The trough that brought rain and cooler
temperatures to the area will move out of the forecast area
completely by early this morning. With the increased moisture
brought by the rain to northeast Washington and the northern
Idaho Panhandle, there is a chance of fog this morning. These
chances are especially high in sheltered northeast valleys,
with a 30-50 percent chance of visibilities dropping to a mile
or lower. Near and around the Spokane area, there is a 10-20
percent chance of fog, particularly along Highway 2 from
Davenport through Spokane. Fog will linger through the early
morning hours with models having the fog clearing out by 8-9am.
With these slightly cooler than normal conditions, there are
localized 30-50 percent chances of 37 degrees or less as a
maximum temperature this morning, leading to chances for frost.
These areas are also confined to northeast Washington and the
northern Idaho Panhandle, with Deer Park and valleys northward
having the best chances. Continued chilly overnight temperatures
bring fog and frost chances tomorrow morning, though they will
be lower than today. Drier air moving in behind the front will
drop PWATs down to 0.4-0.5 inches by the end of the day, which
is 70% of normal. A broad ridge will begin strengthening over
the Western US this afternoon and evening, bringing drier
conditions and higher temperatures to the area. By Wednesday,
temperatures will be back into the mid-80s, which is roughly 15
degrees above normal. No precipitation is expected during this
time.
Thursday through Friday: On Thursday, temperatures remain in the mid-
80s, and the ridge begins breaking down and flattening. A surface
low moving into Montana from Canada will increase the pressure
gradient over the Cascades, leading to gusty winds funneling down
the Cascade gaps and into the broader forecast area. Wind gusts on
Thursday could reach 25-30 mph in the windier places such as
Wenatchee, Waterville Plateau, and the upper Columbia Basin, with 15-
20 mph wind gusts elsewhere. The gradient will not be as strong
Friday, with wind gusts lowering slightly to 15-25 mph. Because of
the conditions drying rapidly with the warmup, relative humidity
values will drop significantly through the week, getting into the
20-25% range by Thursday. These dry and gusty conditions could
lead to some late season fire weather concerns, and we will keep
a close eye on if any headlines are needed.
Saturday through Monday: Ensemble models remain undecided on the
long term weather pattern. There is still a split right down the
middle with half the solutions hinting at higher heights, dry
conditions, and higher temperatures will prevail, while the other
half hinting at lower heights, lower temperatures, and a chance for
light showers. Ensembles struggle further into early next week.
/AS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The cold front has exited the region, with only light
showers lingering around KCOE and eastward into the ID
Panhandle. Ceilings right now are low, with KSFF-KCOE in MVFR.
These ceilings should rise to MVFR once the rain and boundary
layer moisture have moved eastward. Because of the low
temperatures and the moisture provided by the rain, there is a
chance for morning fog in the vicinity of KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW.
This fog looks to diminish by around 17-18Z, so relatively early
in the morning. Winds have waned. By ~18-20Z, skies should clear
out and VFR conditions are anticipated through the rest of the
forecast period. Smoke and haze shows up in models for KEAT but
has not been officially reported in over 24 hours, so not enough
confidence to be included in TAFs. Models also show smoke moving
into the Spokane area tomorrow, but low confidence in that as
well.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR ceilings by ~18-20Z. Low to moderate confidence in MVFR
ceilings remaining more than another hour at KSFF-KCOE. Moderate
confidence in rain clearing out of KCOE by 07Z. Low confidence
in ceiling degradation from fog this morning but patchy fog in
the vicinity is possible. Low confidence in smoke and haze near
KEAT and smoke moving into the Spokane area later today. /AS
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        71  45  79  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  70  46  79  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        68  43  79  48  84  50 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       75  50  83  55  88  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       71  35  78  38  82  40 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      68  40  77  45  81  46 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        68  49  80  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     73  43  81  46  84  47 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74  52  79  56  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           74  48  80  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT today for Central Chelan
     County-Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
     Western Chelan County.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion