Spring Garden, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

531
FXUS64 KBMX 250042
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
742 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 722 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for much of Central
  Alabama this afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
- Medium to high chance (40 to 70 percent) of greater than 1 inch
  of rain through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
Showers and thunderstorms continue to expand in coverage, and will
remain in the forecast for the next 36 hours or so. This remains due
to a deep upper-level trough over the Midwest, and a cold front
dropping south along with it. The SPC has maintained the Day 1 and
Day 2 Marginal risks across the region, with damaging winds
remaining the main threat with any severe activity.
While most locations can expect to see around half an inch of rain,
some of these storms may be very efficient rainfall producers, and a
quick inch plus won`t be out of the question. While the rain is very
welcomed, it`s still not the widespread "drought busting" rain that
many locations need.
/44/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
Showers could linger in our eastern zones into Saturday, as some
residual moisture remains wrapping around the closed low. However,
those should quickly exit the forecast, with dry air filtering right
back into the region. In turn, rain chances will remain limited for
the rest of the forecast, and temperatures will begin to rebound
back into the upper-80s by the start of the new workweek.
/44/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
Continued waves of SHRA/TSRA for most for tonight. Lowest chances
for TS at AUO tonight as activity arrives late. Storms associated
with system ahead of a front. Cigs lower as night progresses with
SHRA activity to IFR for most from 10-13z, going back to MVFR
mid- late morning. Some TSRA is possible again on Thu ahead of
front. Rain is likely and may become widespread. Some gusty winds
are possible at times with the convection.
08
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain chances will remain high the next two days, as a cold front
pushes into the region. Most locations across central Alabama will
see up to half an inch of much needed rainfall. With that being
said, dry conditions are expected to return to the forecast by
Sunday, and remain for most of the new workweek.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     68  82  63  81 /  70  70  30  30
Anniston    70  81  66  81 /  60  70  30  40
Birmingham  71  82  65  82 /  70  70  20  30
Tuscaloosa  71  85  65  84 /  70  60  20  20
Calera      70  83  65  84 /  60  70  20  30
Auburn      71  81  68  81 /  20  80  40  40
Montgomery  71  82  67  83 /  40  80  40  30
Troy        70  83  67  81 /  30  80  60  50
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.../44/
LONG TERM..../44/
AVIATION...08

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion