Stafford, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

412
FXUS63 KDDC 060441
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1141 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A band of rain will end this evening, with clearing overnight
  and very cool temperatures in the 40s.
- A slow warming trend is forecast to commence Saturday
  afternoon, with highs warming back into the 80s next week.
- There are very small chances (5-20%) for t-storms just about
  every day next week, but better chances by next Friday and
  Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
A band of mid level convergence will gradually shift southward
this evening, with the accompanying rain ending at Dodge City by
5 to 6 pm and 7 to 8 pm at Coldwater. With clearing tonight,
expect temperatures to fall into the 40s in many places.
Residual low level moisture will keep temperatures from bottoming
out too low, but mid to upper 40s are likely.
The upper level trough over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes
will gradually move eastward, taking the cool weather with it.
A warming trend will commence Saturday afternoon, with highs
slowly recovering into the upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday and
mid 80 to upper 80s by Tuesday. Readings could touch 90 in a
few places by mid to late next week; but the moist nature of
the low level air mass and lack of downslope flow will prevent
temperatures from getting much warmer than that.
Potential instability will exist starting Monday given the
diurnal heating and moisture. A weak shortwave trough on Monday
could create enough low level convergence for isolated strong to
severe t-storms late in the day. However, the 00 UTC ensemble
suites show a very small chance (10-20%) of .25" or more of
rain; and this makes sense based on the expected isolated nature
of storm cells. Tuesday will likely be dry given the lack of
forcing mechanisms; but an isolated t-storm could still develop
given the abundant low level moisture and potential instability.
An upper level trough over the Desert Southwest will gradually
approach the Plains by next Wednesday through Friday, promoting
surface troughing and weak lift. Given the abundant greenery
still in existence, promoting fluxes from the ground in
addition to moisture advection from the south, there should be
enough instability for t-storms. These storms could be strong to
severe given the expected robustness (for this time of year) of
the upper level trough and associated wind field, along with
upper level divergence. Expect the areal coverage to start out
low Wednesday evening and then become scattered to perhaps
numerous by Friday as mid level cooling arrives. That said, the
various ensemble suites show only slight chances for rains of
.25" or more and the focus is more to the north of Kansas. But
this is based on the 00 UTC model ensemble suites and later
model runs could change. Keep in mind that although area
averaged rainfall could be low, the convective nature of it
could result in localized heavy amounts. Bottom line is that any
precipitation will be isolated at best through Thursday, with
better chances after that into Saturday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
VFR conditions will prevail today with low clouds dissipating
around the LBL terminal in the next few hours. Mid clouds may
hang around the LBL terminal throughout the morning hours. Winds
will be light and from the southwest this morning, shifting to
a southerly direction with a slight increase in speed by this
afternoon.
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Hovorka_42

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion