Stillwell, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

283
FXUS62 KCHS 261119
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
719 AM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will approach the region today, and then likely
stall along the coastline through the weekend. Tropical low
pressure could approach the Southeast U.S. early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, a closed low is expected to develop across the TN
Valley early this morning and then slowly shift eastward
through the day. This will place the forecast area solidly
within the moist southwesterly feed aloft, allowing precipitable
water values to increase to around 2 inches. At the surface, a
slow moving front will extend across the SC Upstate down to the
far western edge of the FL Panhandle and is expected to make
minimal eastward progress through the day. This setup with
increased moisture and forcing is expected to yield a much more
convectively active day. The general consensus among the hi-res
models and the HREF is that the first showers and storms will
initiate across interior southeast GA by late morning, with the
afternoon focus being along the sea breeze from the GA coast up
through along and near the I-95 corridor in southeast SC. The
forecast features 50-70 percent rain chances for much of the
area, and that seems pretty reasonable for the areas along the
sea breeze in the mid to late afternoon hours. Model soundings
show mid-level flow increasing to around 30 knots, yielding a
bit of unidirectional deep layer shear. While the severe threat
isn`t particularly impressive, it is possible there could be one
or two strong to marginally severe storms with the main threat
being strong wind gusts. The increased convective coverage and
precipitable water values up to 2 inches will also increase the
potential for locally heavy rainfall. The good news is that
storms should be pretty progressive, so the heavy rain threat
will mostly come from locations seeing multiple rounds of
storms. The HREF highlights the sea breeze area, especially just
inland of the GA coast up through Effingham/Hampton/Colleton
counties as having the best chances of seeing an inch or more of
rainfall. So while most areas will see amounts mostly half an
inch or less, some localized amounts of 1-2 inches will be
possible. The good news is that current model data suggests most
of the development today should be inland of the
Savannah/Beaufort/Charleston metro areas. Highs are forecast to
warm into the upper 80s for most areas.
Tonight: The forecast area will remain within the moist feed
ahead of the upstream front. Therefore, we could see pockets of
showers and storms develop at just about any time, though late
in the period we should see the focus shift offshore where the
better instability will reside. Temperatures will remain quite
mild, with lows only in the upper 60s to low 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As an upper-lvl low centered over northern Alabama slowly
traverses across the southern Appalachians this weekend, an
upper-lvl ridge will build across the Great Lakes. This upper-
lvl low should allow for an ample amount of moisture from the
Gulf to stay in place across the Carolinas through the weekend
and PWATs will be ~2 inches. Meanwhile, at the surface a cold
front will stall along the coastline and allow for showers and
thunderstorm activity to persist through the weekend under
mostly cloudy skies. The overall severe threat looks to remain
low as cloud cover should limit instability. However, locally
heavy rainfall is possible with the synoptic setup and the
moisture in place. For WPC`s latest Day 2 through Day 4 (Sat
through Mon.) outlook, they have highlighted a Slight Risk
(Level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for portions of Southeast
South Carolina (mainly for Charleston and Berkeley Counties). In
regards to accumulations, rainfall totals range from 0.5 to 1.5
inches along and west of I-95 and those near the Charleston
Metro ranging between 0.5 to 1.0 inches. However, could easily
see higher totals occur (localized pockets of 2 to 4 inches) if
training storms develop and/or storm motion is slower than
anticipated.
To make the forecast even more complex, a tropical wave (Invest
94L) currently located near Hispaniola is projected to move
northwestward across the Bahamas this weekend, and possibly
develop into a tropical depression, or tropical storm (Imelda).
There are a couple of scenarios that could unfold here with 94L.
What happens with 94L will largely be dependent on the position
of the upper-lvl low located over the southern Appalachians.
There is still a chance that 94L will remain weak and/or slow
down, and this will allow Tropical Cyclone Humberto to pull the
system eastward and allow 94L to remain well offshore of the
Southeast coast. However, it`s becoming increasing likely that
94L does develop into a tropical depression when it is in the
vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas later today, or
this weekend, and then this cutoff upper-lvl low located over
the southern Appalachians will largely steer the system north-
northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic towards the
Southeast coastline early next week. It`s important to remember
that confidence with either of these solutions remains extremely
low and significant uncertainty in the long-range track
remains.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
This forecast becomes exponentially uncertain into early next
week as most of it depends on the movement and intensity of
Invest 94L. Reading NHC`s latest forecast, there remains a 80%
chance of formation over the next 48 hours, and a 90% chance of
formation over the next 7 days for 94L. Thus, there is enough
agreement in place to suggest that at a minimum, 94L will evolve
into a Tropical Storm. Luckily, more observations (Hurricane
Hunters and additional UA soundings at WFOs) will be ingested
into the model data, and will hopefully have a better picture of
what will happen next week in a day or so. In the meantime, we
encourage folks to continue monitoring the latest forecast and
review their evacuation plans and emergency kits.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The 12z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI,
and KSAV though surrounding observations and satellite imagery
show that IFR stratus isn`t too far away from KCHS and KJZI.
This stratus could sneak into KCHS and KJZI through about 14z
with some short-lived flight restrictions. Attention then turns
to thunderstorm chances this afternoon. Model guidance
consensus is that the best thunderstorm chances will be along
the sea breeze near KSAV in the mid to late afternoon. We have
maintained VCTS there starting at 20z. Thunderstorm development
is expected to be inland of KJZI, but could be close to KCHS.
For now we have added VCSH at KCHS starting at 20z. Additional
showers will be possible late tonight, especially around KCHS
and KJZI. Also, stratus will likely be an issue at all 3 TAF
sites closer to sunrise Saturday. We have kept the forecast VFR
for now but MVFR or IFR conditions will be possible near the end
of the 12z TAF period.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR through the week. Expect
some brief periods of restricted ceilings due to afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
Today through tonight: Southwest flow in the morning will turn
more south or even southeast through the afternoon, then back to
southwesterly overnight. Speeds should top out in the 10-15
knot range, mostly in the afternoon and early evening along the
land/sea interface. Seas are expected to average 2-3 feet.
Thunderstorm activity is expected to increase across the local
waters during the overnight period. Gusty winds and frequent
lightning will be the primary threats.
Saturday through Wednesday: As a weak front stalls across the
local waters through the weekend, high pressure will allow for
rather tranquil marine conditions throughout most the weekend.
Expect southeasterly winds at 5 to 10 kts on Saturday, and then
quickly switching to the northeast and begin to increase to 10
to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft
through the weekend, and then begin to increase as we head into
early next week. Thereafter, the forecast becomes significantly
uncertain into next week as we continue to monitor Invest 94L.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...Dennis
LONG TERM...Dennis
AVIATION...BSH/Dennis
MARINE...BSH/Dennis

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion