Stonewall, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

561
FXUS64 KEWX 161839
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
139 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average daytime highs and near to slightly above
  average overnight lows into the weekend
- Very low (5-20%) rain chances through weekend; slightly
  higher chances (20-35%) early next week
&&
.SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A fair and persistent weather pattern will remain during the short
term period. A west-northwesterly flow persists aloft with mid-level
ridging centered over Mexico. Modest onshore flow continues with
weak surface high pressure across the Gulf waters and southeastern
CONUS. Afternoon highs will continue to run above average, into the
mid 90s for many, while overnight lows stay closer to average. There
could be just enough combination of low-level moisture and daytime
heating for a few pop-up showers, or even a stray storm, for the
areas mainly along and east of highway 281 this afternoon and
Wednesday afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
The mid-level ridging centered over Mexico from late this week and
into the weekend is expected to slowly start to amplify and nudge
northwards into the Southwestern CONUS. While the heights could
slightly weaken on the eastern periphery of the ridge, don`t expect
any significant changes to the overall weather regime across our
region through at least the weekend. Afternoon highs will continue
to run above average while the conditions at night look to trend
perhaps slightly more humid with lows that are a degree or two
warmer. The rain chances look to remain at most in the 10-20% range
through the weekend. Thursday and Friday could see the best focus
along portions of the Rio Grande with a tongue of greater moisture
out west while the weekend may be more focused from the coastal
plains into the Eastern Hill Country.
Uncertainty increases once entering early next week. The ridging
extending from Mexico into the Desert Southwest should continue to
reposition toward the north-northwest and this may allow for a
disturbance to round the eastern periphery of the ridge and slide
southwards into or through the southern plains. There is some
significant location and timing differences, along with run-to-run
consistency, within the medium range guidance regarding this
disturbance. A surface front pushing southward may also be tied in
with this as well. We`ll elect to go with slightly increased rain
chances (20-35%) during this period for now with slightly lower
temperatures and increased cloud cover.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
VFR conditions are expected at area TAF sites through the current
forecast period. East to southeast winds will continue to develop
today along with some isolated convection near and east of the I-35
corridor. We will not include a mention of any SHRA or TSRA at our
TAF sites given we expect only isolated coverage. Some drier air in
the lower levels will limit the potential for low cloud development
overnight into Wednesday morning and will only mention FEW-SCT low
clouds for now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  95  72  96 /  10  10   0  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  95  69  95 /  10  10   0  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  95  69  96 /  10  10   0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            68  91  69  91 /  10  10   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  92  73  92 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  93  70  93 /  10  20   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             67  94  68  94 /   0  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        67  95  68  95 /  10  10   0  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  95  69  95 /  10  20   0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  94  71  94 /  10  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           71  95  72  96 /  10  10   0  10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM...62
AVIATION...Platt

NWS EWX Office Area Forecast Discussion