Stony Bottom, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

486
FXUS61 KRLX 291040
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
640 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure provides dry weather through much of the
week. A tropical system becomes a hurricane off the Florida
coast on Tuesday, then heads east further into the Atlantic.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...
Dense fog (evident in satellite imagery) has developed in the
river valleys during the overnight hours, and will persist until
mid morning before dissipating by late morning. Afterwards,
expect a mostly sunny, dry and unseasonably warm day, as a large
high pressure system builds across the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley,
West Virginia and the northeast U.S., and dominates our weather.
High clouds, streaming northward from the outer bands of Tropical
Storm Imelda, will create filtered sunshine at times, especially
across eastern West Virginia. With light northeast winds, afternoon
high temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s for most
lowland areas. The mountains will be cooler, with highs ranging from
the mid 60s to mid 70s.
Tonight, the distribution of clouds will be the main story. Skies
will remain clear across the western portions of the forecast area,
allowing for efficient radiational cooling. Farther east, lingering
mid and upper level clouds will act as a blanket, keeping temperatures
slightly milder. Despite this difference, most locations will see
overnight lows dropping into the comfortable mid to upper 50s.
Tropical Update: The National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical
Storm Imelda, currently located near the Bahamas. The storm is forecast
to move slowly north today before turning northeast into the
Atlantic, likely strengthening into a hurricane by early
Tuesday. Its only impact on our region will be the high level cloud
cover mentioned above.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...
As the projected trajectory of to be Hurricane Imelda takes a
northeast turn into the Atlantic, less influence is expected on
the local weather Tuesday and Wednesday.
NBM guidance suggests widespread dense fog across the entire area
Monday night into Tuesday morning. However, the aforementioned mid
to upper level clouds may interrupt radiational cooling further
east, suppressing fog formation over these areas.
For Tuesday night, dense river valley fog is once again expected,
though it may be less dense in the east where cloud cover will be
greater. Wednesday will feature dry weather and clear skies under
light north to northeast flow. Highs will only reach the mid 70s to
low 80s in the valleys, with 60s and low 70s in the mountains during
these days. It will be another cool night Wednesday, with lows in
the low 50s and even some mid 40s in the highest elevations.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM Monday...
By Wednesday night, the strong upper level ridge joins the
surface high pressure to provide very stable conditions through
the end of the week. Days will be filled with plenty of
sunshine, while nights feature the potential for river valley
fog.
Above normal highs (5 degrees) are expected Wednesday through
Friday. Dry weather conditions should extend into next weekend
with above seasonal temperatures.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM Monday...
IFR/LIFR conditions under dense river valley fog, evident on
satellite imagery, METARs and webcams, will gradually lift or
dissipate by 14-15Z. Then, high pressure, at the surface and
aloft, will provide widespread VFR conditions through at least
midnight.
High clouds, associated with the outer bands of T.S. Imelda,
will stream north northeast along the Appalachians today. Some
of these clouds could extend further west into central WV, but
additional effects are not expected.
Dense fog overnight tonight may be possible wherever skies clear.
Otherwise, thicker cloudiness should suppress radiational
cooling and associated IFR/LIFR dense fog development.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high with fog overnight tonight
into Tuesday morning, otherwise high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improving restrictions due to
dense fog may vary from forecast.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE                         MON 09/29/25
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR is possible with river valley fog each morning through Friday.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion