Strayhorn, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

599
FXUS64 KMEG 180421
AFDMEG
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1121 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1030 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
- Hot temperatures with a low chance (20 percent or less) of rain
  will continue through the weekend.
- Temperatures will return to near normal next week as rain
  chances are on the rise.
- Drought conditions are expected to persist or worsen due to a
  lack of appreciable rainfall and prolonged heat. This also
  raises wildland fire concerns through Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Tonight through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Another rinse and repeat forecast is on tap for Thursday.
Temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 90s with diurnally
driven convection warranting a low (10-15%) PoP. This prolonged
hot and mostly dry pattern is due to a modified Omega Block over
the central CONUS, which is becoming progressively more vertically
squished and tilted with each day. The ridge amplification in the
middle of the block is directly overhead, which is why
temperatures will peak in the upper 90s on Thursday. This will
most likely be the hottest day of the forecast period as it is the
most heavily dominated by midlevel ridging.
Moving to the end of the week and into the weekend, the upper
level pattern will break down just enough to allow some weak
troughing to become the dominant flow regime over the Mid-South.
It`s looking like a cold front will make a valiant effort at
materializing on Friday, but the mean flow is just not having it.
Forecast surface analyses depict this turning into a nondescript
frontal mess by Friday afternoon with just enough lift to
encourage a slight chance (15-25%) of showers and thunderstorms
Friday afternoon and evening during the attempted frontogenesis.
Temperatures will still be on the hot side, ~5 degrees above
normal through at least Sunday. Any rain we do get will most
likely be in the form of sporadic single cell convection, which
will do no favors for the ongoing drought situation across the
area.
Early next week, things finally start to cool off. A very deep
trough will start to dig through the northern Plains by Monday. As
it approaches the Mid-South, it will continue amplifying to the
point of becoming a cutoff low that will gently rotate about the
Upper MS River Valley through midweek. This will do wonders for
our temperatures, sending them quickly back down to near-normal
territory in the mid to upper 80s. In addition, this upper level
divergence will give way to more widespread showers and
thunderstorms, especially Monday night into Tuesday. This isn`t
going to be a drought-busting series of days by any means as QPF
next week is barely above 0.5 inches, but it will be a welcomed
respite from the blazing sun and heat we`ve had for the last few
days. Temperatures look to stay near normal through the end of
next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
A ridge of high pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley will
result in VFR conditions and light winds prevailing through the
period at all sites.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Fire weather concerns will peak Thursday afternoon due to
afternoon RH values falling below 30% in addition to very hot
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. In addition to the ongoing
moderate to severe drought situation, fuels are primed for
wildfire danger. Fortunately, winds should remain light enough to
preclude any significant fire danger. Humidity will be on the
increase as temperatures decrease through the weekend.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CJC

NWS MEG Office Area Forecast Discussion