Sunset Island, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

556
FXUS62 KMFL 141106
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
706 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
A drier airmass has settled into South Florida over the last several
hours as light northerly surface winds across the region continues
on the far western periphery of a developing area of low pressure
just offshore of the southeastern United States. The frontal
boundary that was previously stalled across our region has also
pushed further southeast into the Florida Straits and is now well
away from the region. Forecast precipitable water values today are
more so in the 1.3 inch to 1.6 inch range (below climatological
norms), a stark contrast compared to precipitable water values that
were above the 90th percentile for much of the past week. Drier mid-
level air mixing down during the afternoon hours will limit the
overall extent of shower and thunderstorm activity, although there
will still be enough moisture and lift along the sea-breeze to get a
few showers and storms to develop. 500mb temperatures of -6C to -7C
with marginal lapse rates may still result in the potential of 1 or
2 isolated storms that have robust cloud to ground lightning and
wind gusts up to 40 mph. As our rain chances trend lower, the
cooling benefits that we have seen from the previous widespread
shower and storm coverage (cloud debris & outflow boundaries as
well) over the past week will also trend lower. This will result in
higher afternoon temperatures today although heat indices will
remain below heat advisory thresholds thanks to the drier mid-level
air mixing down to the surface.
The non-tropical air of low pressure offshore of the Carolinas will
begin a slow acceleration to the northeast by Monday, still attached
to that pesky frontal boundary over the Florida Straits. Aloft,
overnight guidance continues to depict the mid-level trough slowing
down with a piece of mid-level energy remaining behind and becoming
a cut off low just offshore or along the southeastern United States
coast during this time-frame. The forecast for Monday is similar to
today with rain chances in the 30-50% range, mainly focused along
sea-breeze boundary collisions. High temperatures will remain
similar to today with forecasted high temperatures in the upper 80s
to low 90s across the region.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Effectively blocked by mid-level ridging to the east over the
western Atlantic waters, the aforementioned cut-off low will remain
in place over the southeastern United States coast through the
middle portion of the work-week period before drifting northeastward
out ahead of the next longwave trough. As the cut-off low begins to
gradually drift eastward, the surface signal: a non-tropical area of
low pressure just offshore of the Carolinas will lift northwards
towards the Outer Banks and pass just offshore of the Mid Atlantic
on Tuesday. The attached frontal boundary over the Florida Straits
will be pulled back northwards as the "parent" surface low lifts
north. As the front arrives back over South Florida, deeper moisture
will make a return to the region with a notable increase in
precipitable water values. Maximum daily rain chances increase from
30-50% at the beginning of the week to the 70-80% Wednesday through
Friday. By Wednesday, forecast model guidance once again depicts the
potential of a saturated atmosphere over South Florida with
precipitable water values in the 2.1 to 2.3 inch range. Forecast
model soundings once again depict a classic skinny CAPE profile that
points to the potential of efficient rainfall rates that could lead
to localized flooding concerns. Ensemble guidance suites depict a
higher QPF signal across the eastern half of the region which
coincides with the return and stall of the frontal boundary. This
checks out with the simulated 500mb regime during the second half of
the week which features mid-level troughing over the eastern United
States and southwesterly flow over South Florida.
After a respite during the first half of the work-week, an active
mid to late week portion of the week is becoming increasingly likely
as model guidance continues to iron out the specifics. The threat of
localized flooding may return across the region as thunderstorms
with efficient rainfall rates could produce bursts of heavy rainfall
in short periods of time. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) adds
back in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive flooding for the
majority of South Florida on Wednesday. Details will continue to
become clearer as we move forward in time.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 705 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Light northwesterly winds this morning becoming SE 5-10 kts this
afternoon, with a westerly breeze expected at APF. Scattered
thunderstorms mid to late afternoon may result in brief flight
restrictions and erratic winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
A gentle to moderate northerly breeze will continue across most of
the local waters into early next week before veering out of a
northeasterly direction and enhancing by the mid week period. Seas
across the Atlantic waters will generally remain between 2 to 4 feet
through mid next week while seas across the Gulf waters remain at 1
to 2 feet. Periods of rough seas and gusty winds will be possible
each day near the most robust shower and thunderstorm activity.
&&
.BEACHES...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Minor coastal flooding is possible along the east coast of South
Florida today within 1.5 to 2 hours of high tide. A Coastal Flood
Statement remains in effect until 5pm this afternoon. A moderate
risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Palm Beaches
through the rest of the weekend as onshore flow continues and a
northeasterly swell in the Atlantic waters lingers.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  76  90  77 /  30  20  50  30
West Kendall     91  74  90  75 /  30  20  50  20
Opa-Locka        91  75  91  77 /  30  20  50  30
Homestead        89  74  89  75 /  20  20  40  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  75  89  77 /  30  30  40  30
N Ft Lauderdale  91  76  90  78 /  30  20  40  30
Pembroke Pines   93  76  92  77 /  30  20  50  30
West Palm Beach  89  74  90  76 /  20  20  40  20
Boca Raton       91  74  91  76 /  30  20  40  30
Naples           89  74  90  75 /  10  10  20  10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...CMF

NWS MFL Office Area Forecast Discussion