Surry, New Hampshire Weather Forecast Discussion

892
FXUS61 KBOX 291908
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
308 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather continues through Tuesday with less humidity,
but turning cooler Tuesday afternoon near the coast. Trending cooler
Wednesday and Thursday with below normal temperatures and potential
for patchy frost, especially Thu night. Also, a period of gusty
coastal winds will develop around midweek as Hurricane Humberto
makes its closest approach, and high surf and dangerous rip currents
will impact the beaches. A warming trend begins Friday with a return
to above normal temperatures next weekend as the dry weather pattern
continues.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Key Messages...
* Cloudy with warmer than average low temps in the 50s.
High clouds have arrived on schedule today as upper level moisture
streams north ahead of Tropical Storm Imelda. We`ll continue to see
this mix of clouds and sun for the rest of today. Tonight, the cloud
deck will keep us from radiating efficiently despite the light
winds. For that reason, expecting low temperatures to come in
several degrees warmer than normal for late Sept, in the mid to
upper 50s, even touching the low 60s in some spots along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Another warm day on Tuesday with highs in the mid to upper 70s.
  The exception is the immediate east coast which will be cooler.
* Breezy winds Tuesday afternoon increase steadily overnight.
The overall quiet pattern continues as broad high pressure sinks
south from Canada keeping us dry and helping to steer the offshore
systems away. These tropical cyclones will continue to move north
and east; as they do this will sandwich SNE between themselves and
the building high. This results in a tightening pressure gradient
and increasingly breezy winds as we head into mid week. Expect
breezy winds Tuesday afternoon, gusting 15 to 20 mph. The strongest
winds, though, don`t arrive until Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Overnight gusts on the Cape and Islands may reach 25 to 35 mph. The
northeast direction of these winds on Tuesday will also have an
impact on the high temperature forecast; while areas further inland
reach the upper 70s to near 80, the onshore breeze will keep extreme
eastern MA in the low to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points
* Extended stretch of dry weather expected through at least this
   weekend
* Cooling trend Wednesday and Thursday before above normal temps
   return Friday through the weekend
* Gusty NNE winds anticipated Tuesday night through Thursday
   morning could bring fire weather concerns to the region
* Distant Major Hurricane Huberto will bring rough surf and
   dangerous marine conditions mid-week.
A large area of high pressure dropping south from Canada will bring
an extended stretch of dry weather to the region through at least
next weekend, if not beyond.  GFS and EURO ensemble probabilities
for just 1/100th of an inch of rain (i.e., a trace) are 0% through
Sunday, October 5th.  That area of high pressure will initially drag
down some cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, with highs
in the 60s.  It will be quite breezy on Wednesday, with a strong
west to east pressure gradient bringing NNE winds gusting 20-30mph
inland and 30-40mph closer to the coasts.   Dewpoints will also be
falling into the low 30s on Wednesday, which combined with the gusty
winds, could bring fire weather concerns to the region.  Winds
gradually diminish on Thursday, but dewpoints could fall further
into the upper 20s, continuing the fire weather concerns.  Dewpoints
are expected to begin rising starting Friday as the surface flow
shifts more to the south-southwest.  Highs also warm back into the
low 70s for Friday, then upper 70s to low 80s possible for the
weekend.
Major Hurricane Huberto is expected to track well out to sea,
passing off to the east Tuesday night into Wednesday.  While not
expecting any direct impacts from Humberto, the strong intensity of
the storm will send large waves towards our coasts on Wednesday with
10-12 foot waves offshore.  This will bring the risk for high surf
and strong rip currents on Wednesday into Thursday, along with
possible coastal erosion, especially for south-facing shores and
beaches.  Given that Wednesday will be the start of October and cool
weather is expected, no surf headlines will be issued, but please
use extra caution if venturing out to shorelines both Wednesday and
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z Update:
Tonight through Tuesday night...High Confidence.
VFR through the period with high clouds. Light wind today with sea-
breezes through the late afternoon. Light winds tonight
gradually shifting more NW-N late, then N-NE winds 8-15 kt
developing Tue, with 20 kt gusts developing over Cape/Islands in
the afternoon and continuing overnight.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
Thursday Night through Saturday: VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Tuesday Night...High confidence.
Relatively tranquil boating conditions continue this afternoon with
light winds and seas. Increasing swell from distant Hurricane
Humberto will begin to arrive over the southern waters late tonight
into Tue, with SCA conditions as seas build to 5-7 ft. A Gale Watch
is in effect for portions of the outer waters. In addition,
increasing NE winds develop Tue afternoon with gusts 20-25kt
possible, especially southern waters. Tuesday night these gusts
further increase to as high as 35 kts with seas of 7 to 10 ft.
Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Wednesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.
Wednesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough
seas up to 12 ft.
Thursday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.
Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday
     night for ANZ231>234-254-255.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ235-237.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ250-251.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BW/KP
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...KP
AVIATION...BW/KP
MARINE...BW/KP

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion