Tallevast, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

480
FXUS62 KTBW 100025
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
825 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The rainy and dreary conditions today have kept highs on the cool
side with some areas such as SRQ only able to reach 81 earlier,
which is 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year. Recent
KTBW radar imagery continues to show scattered showers and a few storms
across the area but coverage is slowly decreasing as instability
eases. Any of the lingering activity over land areas should mostly
taper off by late evening with highest rain chances overnight
mainly confined to the eastern Gulf waters, though the onshore
flow in place for southern portions of the area may keep elevated
rain chances in SWFL, particularly into early Wednesday morning as
some showers and storms come ashore at times. Other than some
minor adjustment to PoPs to reflect latest radar trends, the
forecast remains in good shape this evening.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Through Wednesday, the weak low pressure area over the Gulf waters
will drift slowly west with a stalled boundary across north
Florida. Deep moisture will continue across the area leading to
more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. On Thursday
the boundary will begin to drift south as high pressure builds
over the eastern U.S. with northeast winds ushering in some drier
into the Nature Coast which will lower rain chances here.
Elsewhere from around the I-4 corridor south, the scattered to
numerous convection will continue.
By Friday, the boundary will have shifted to south Florida with
drier air continuing to filter south. Isolated to scattered
afternoon and early evening convection will still be possible with
rain chances ranging from around 20 percent Nature Coast to 60
percent in southwest Florida. Over the weekend and into early next
week the drier air, precipitable water dipping to less than 1.5
inches, will overspread the entire area with afternoon and early
evening rain chances falling to only 20 to 30 percent.
Also, thanks to the drier air moving in over the weekend we`ll see
overnight lows dip into the 60s across the Nature Coast, with some
upper 60s down into the central inland areas Sunday and Monday
mornings.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 810 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Areas of low stratus may develop overnight and could yield
MVFR/IFR CIGs across portions of the area into Wednesday morning.
There also could be scattered SHRA Wednesday morning mainly at
SWFL terminals, though rain chances increase will generally
increase area-wide into tomorrow afternoon and evening with
scattered/numerous TSRA possible as deep moisture lingers across
the region. Thus, occasional flight restrictions may occur,
especially during periods of heavier downpours.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The persistent surface low over the eastern Gulf will continue to
cause numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the
coastal waters into Thursday as it drifts slowly away to the
west. Meanwhile a weak frontal boundary will move south through
the waters. Small Craft Exercise Caution winds are expected over
the Gulf waters north of Tarpon Springs tonight. Rain chances
will drop Friday through the weekend as drier air fills in from
the north.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2025
The persistent low over the eastern Gulf will continue to pull
tropical moisture into the Florida Peninsula into Thursday. This
will produce numerous showers and thunderstorms, and keep relative
humidity high across the area. However, some drier air will begin to
spread south during Thursday lowering the rain chances north of the
Interstate 4 corridor.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  88  76  88 /  50  70  30  50
FMY  76  89  76  90 /  50  70  30  80
GIF  74  89  75  89 /  50  80  20  60
SRQ  74  88  75  88 /  50  70  40  60
BKV  72  87  71  87 /  40  70  20  40
SPG  75  87  76  86 /  50  70  30  50
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Davis

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion