Tamworth, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

353
FXUS61 KAKQ 290745
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
345 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to track north off the Southeast
coast today before becoming a hurricane as it turns out to sea
on Tuesday. Light rain well north of the systems overspreads the
local area today into Tuesday. However, only light rainfall
total are now expected. High pressure builds in from mid to late
week with cooler and drier weather returning.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EDT Monday...
Key Message:
- Low level clouds continue to increase through the early morning
hours.
- Chances of rain increase again today.
Early morning analysis shows the upper low has completely weakened and
has dissolved. In its place a ridge has begun to move in across much
of the eastern United States. While at the surface, a stationary
boundary has set up along the coast. Behind the front stable and
cool air is in place with cloud`s continuing to increase as  TS
Imelda slowly moves north off the coast of Florida. Temperatures as
of 2am are in the low to middle 60s inland and upper 60s along the
coast. Through the rest of the morning clouds will increase and some
patchy ground fog will develop. Temperatures will not change as
much as radiational cooling will be halted. Lows this morning will
be in the lower to middle 60s.
Throughout the day a high  pressure will continue to move out of the
north. While further to the south TS Imelda will continue to make
its way north off the Floridian coast. As it moves north some low
level moisture tries to make its way into the area. However, the
high to the north will help keep the moisture confined to south of
I-64. Latest model trends have continued to back off on the rain
chances and the amount for today. The heaviest of rain will be
confined to 460 and south, with some areas may receiving between .1
and .25" of rain. There could be a heavier shower or two that could
lead to higher localized totals. While to the north most of the
area will stay dry but a light shower cannot be ruled out and QPF
totals are less than .1". Otherwise, today will be a mostly cloudy
day with highs reaching into the lower to middle 70s. Through the
night showers will continue across the south but will start to
dwindle as TS Imelda start to make her turn east and the high out of
Canada starts to move in place. Lows tonight will be in the low to
middle 60s inland and upper 60s along the coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Breezy and drier weather conditions are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday , especially along  the coast where gusts up to around 30
mph are possible   Tuesday and 35 to 40 mph Wednesday.
At the surface, a strong high pressure will move out of Canada early
Tuesday. While to the south TS-Imelda will have finally turned east
and will be pushed out to sea. The high pressure will move out and
remaining shower left across the area early Tuesday as cooler and
drier air is rushed in across the area. Throughout tuesday the
pressure gradient will tighten especially along the coast from both
the high to the north and the tropicals systems off shore. This will
allow for breezy to windy to from. Inland could see 15 to 20 mph
wind gusts while along the coast winds gusts are expected to be as
high as 30mph. Highs for Tuesday will be in the lower 70s inland and
middle 70s along the coast. Wednesday will almost be a rinse and
repeat of Tuesday. However, there will be higher wind gusts across
the area as the high moved over New England and a secondary surge of
cooler and drier air comes over the area. Inland wind gusts are
progged to be between 20 to 25 mph. While along the coast they will
be between 30 to 30 MPH with some areas possibly seeing 40mph  wind
gusts. Temperatures will be in the low 70s across the entire area.
Then by Wednesday nigh, as the cooler and drier air is over the
region lows will drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s inland and
middle to upper 50s to low 60s along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Fall conditions are expected by the end of next week. However, by
the weekend warmer air is expected to make a return.
The 00z Ensemble guidance continues to be in decent agreement with
the long range pattern. A large ridge is progged to build in across
much of eastern Canada late week into next weekend. While at the
surface, high pressure will continue to dominate our weather
pattern. The high will continue to move south out of New England
both Thursday and Friday. This will allow for drier and true fall
conditions to come to the CWA. Highs will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s both Thursday and Friday. Then by the end start of next
weekend the high is progged to be south of our area. With the high
to the south this will allow for warmer air to make a return to the
area.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Monday...
A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions have been noted across the area
this morning. Some light mist to patchy to has started to
develop across SBY this morning causing some MVFR Vis. While
across ECG low level clouds have started to move in bringing
MVFR CIGs across the other three terminals VFR conditions will
start out the 6z TAF period. Through the rest of the morning the
low level clouds will continue to push north bringing MVFR
conditions to PHF and ORF ~7z. While RIC should remain VFR
through the rest of the morning. SBY will continue to see the
patchy fog through most if not all the 6z taf period. Winds will
remain light and variable across all but ECG where winds will
be between 5 to 10 kt out of the NE. Scattered light showers are
possible by later Monday morning- afternoon. The best chances
for showers will be at RIC and to the SW. Showers are expected
to be light with minimal VSBY restrictions possible. Calm or
light and variable winds tonight, becoming NE 5-10 kt on Monday.
Outlook: Periods of sub-VFR conditions continue through Tuesday.
VFR conditions then return Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- SCAs have been issued starting later today and tonight for the
lower Chesapeake Bay, Currituck Sound, and Atlantic coastal waters.
SCAs for the remainder of the local waters go into effect on Tuesday.
- Deteriorating conditions and building NE winds are expected, with
the strongest winds expected Tuesday night through  early Thursday,
primarily due to a strong pressure gradient N  of the region as
Humberto and Imelda move well offshore. Gale Watches have been
issued for the lower Bay, Currituck Sound, and the Atlantic Coastal
Waters.
- Follow the latest information from the National Hurricane Center
regarding the progress of Humberto and Imelda.
Latest analysis indicates broad ~1020mb sfc high pressure centered
over the Ohio Valley continues to build across the local waters. NNE
winds averaging around 10 kt for most of the area. Waves are ~1 ft,
with seas mostly around 2-3 ft north, 3-4 ft south.
Tropical Storm Imelda is slowly moving N from the NW Bahamas, with
Major Hurricane Humberto well offshore. Humberto will send
increasingly strong long-period swell toward the local waters
through midweek, with the local area still progged to see a dominant
period around 15 sec by Tuesday. This will translate to slowly
building seas today into this evening, with that trend to continue
over the next few days. The tightening pressure gradient between the
tropical systems to the SE and strong 1032+mb sfc high pressure
pushing SE across Quebec will lock in a prolonged period of elevated
NE winds, expected to peak from late Tuesday night into early
Thursday. These gusty winds will be in addition to the developing
high surf across our area due to the sharpening gradient and the
incoming strong E-SE swell.
NE winds pick up to 15-20kt this afternoon and this evening, with
seas increasing AOA 4-5ft by aftn for the southern ocean zones. In
addition, despite good model agreement now that Imelda will follow
Humberto out to sea through the week, the combination of the
compressing pressure gradient and the building seas will bring
deteriorating marine conditions this afternoon through midweek.
The gradient should be strong enough for Gales at least in the
lower Bay and the coastal waters S of Parramore. Local wind
probs are coming into range for the expected peak of the
strongest winds across the local area, and the potential for
gusts to low end Gale force from late Tuesday into Wednesday
over the coastal waters (60-80% probability for 35 kt gusts
during this period over the N, 80-90+% S), lower Ches bay and
Currituck Sound (30-50% probability). Wind Probs and Multi-model
ensembles indicating that Gale Gusts could linger as long as
Wed night/early Thursday south of Cape Charles. Seas expected to
build to 10-14 ft S and 8-11 ft N by Wed, with waves in the Bay
3-5 ft N and 5-6 ft S (6-8 ft at the mouth of the Bay).
As far as headlines go, SCA go into effect this afternoon/this
evening for the coastal waters, Sound, and Atlantic Coastal Zones,
and go into effect Tuesday for the remainder of the area. Gale
Watches have been added for the Bay south of New Point Comfort and
the Atlantic coastal waters for Tuesday night and Wednesday,
continuing through Wed night/early Thu for the coastal waters
south of Cape Charles. Winds gradually diminish Thursday and
continue to decrease Friday, but SCA headlines for elevated seas
are expected to be needed into next weekend.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 345 AM EDT Monday...
Tidal departures remain minimal with no coastal flooding expected
through Tuesday. After that, expect anomalies to steadily
increase by 1-1.5 Tuesday night and Wednesday, highest across
the lower Bay, as strong high pressure slowly drops SE across
Quebec, and Humberto and Tropical Storm Imelda move farther
offshore. The resulting tightening pressure gradient will bring
a prolonged period of strong onshore flow, and water level rises
as long-period swell from the tropical storms quickly builds
seas. Coastal Flood Advisories and possible Watches/Warnings may
be needed as early as Wed morning, but are more likely for late
Wed through Thursday.
The latest ETSS continues to show a high likelihood of at
least minor coastal flooding Wed/Thu for most tidal sites, with
the highest anomalies once again in the lower-mid Bay and lower
James/York River, as well as most of the zones adjacent to the
Atlantic. While most water levels are expected to peak at Minor
flooding Wed night into Thu, some local moderate flooding is
currently forecast. At Sewells Point, the 50th percentile value
per ETSS for the Wed evening tide is right around 5 ft, with the
90th percentile value just below Moderate coastal flood
threshold of 5.5 ft. MLLW. At Lynnhaven, 50th percentile
Wednesday night on ETSS is at ~5.1 ft, or just above Moderate
coastal flood threshold, with the 90th percentile just below
Major coastal flood threshold at 5.4 ft. The eastern shore will
likely stay below flood levels through Wednesday morning`s tide
cycle, but could see minor tidal flooding develop late Wed and
Thu on the ocean side. On the Bay side and the tidal
Rappahannock and Potomac Rivers, minor coastal flood impacts
will be possible with the Wed night and Thursday cycles, as
winds start to drop off with water potentially becoming trapped
in the Bay, allowing tidal anomalies to potentially drift north
up the Bay.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Thursday
     for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ632-634-656-658.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for ANZ632>634-650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT Tuesday
     for ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday
     for ANZ636-637.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night
     for ANZ656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HET/RMM
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...LKB/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion