Taylor, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

377
FXUS63 KLBF 191135
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
635 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower/thunder chances are in the forecast today across the
  Sandhills into central and north central Nebraska. An isolated
  sponger storm mat develop near a cold front across southwest
  Nebraska late this afternoon or early evening.
- Next chance for rainfall will come Monday into Tuesday.
- Highs will average below normal today, moderating this weekend
  with near normal readings Sunday and Monday. Tuesday and
  beyond should see a return to somewhat below normal
  temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A mid-level wave can be clearly seen moving east-southeastward per
WV imagery across southwest South Dakota early this morning. This
feature will move across northern Nebraska today. An axis of mid-
level WAA and FGEN will increase as this occurs, with an area of
showers and embedded thunder expected to move across the Sandhills
into portions of central and north central Nebraska through the day.
A cold front will sag southward behind this wave and be located
roughly along a line from Burwell to North Platte to Grant by early
this evening. Strong shear will align with about 1500 J/KG of SFC
based CAPE along and ahead of this front early this evening, and
should become the focus for a isolated thunderstorm development.
CAMs are not aggressive with much development and overall confidence
is low, but the potential will be there for a strong  to perhaps
severe storm south of I-80 late this afternoon through mid evening.
The front begins to wash out overnight as winds become nearly calm.
Attention then turns to the development of fog. This looks most
likely to the south of Highway 2 and it could be locally dense.
After the morning fog potential, Saturday is looking to be a mainly
dry day. Northwest flow aloft will persist across the area between
an upper low across the Great Lakes Region and subtle upper level
ridging across the southwest CONUS.
Attention then turn to Sunday. A warm front will lift northward
through the area with a return to at least lower 60s dew points. As
highs warm into the upper 70s to near 80, a narrow ribbon of decent
instability develops from north to south across the area. A weak
surface trough will be located across far western Nebraska. At this
time, it appears that overall weak low-level convergence along the
boundary and little upper level forcing should keep conditions dry.
If a storm does manage to develop near the surface trough it could
become strong - so we`ll have to monitor this potential.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 435 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The first of next week looks rather unsettled. A shortwave will drop
southeastward from the northern Rockies and across the central
plains. This will bring an increasing threat for showers and
possibly thunder. Severe weather potential is uncertain at this
time. Any threat would be Monday into Monday evening with decent
instability and moderate shear developing ahead of the advancing
cold front into the area.
The week will start off mild with highs in the upper 70s and lower
80s on Monday. This is about normal for this time of year. A cold
frontal passage will then cool highs off to around 70 Tuesday and
Wednesday. A slow moderation in temperatures (highs) will occur by
the end of the week. Low temperatures look to remain mild - with no
frost potential expected through Thursday, September 25th.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Patches of fog are expected in low lying areas this morning,
including in and around LBF. All areas should be VFR by late
this morning. Scattered areas of rain and a few thunderstorms
will track across northern Nebraska through this morning into
the afternoon. Areas of fog and IFR/LIFR are expected to become
more widespread late tonight.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion