800 FXUS63 KJKL 262332 AFDJKLAREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 732 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few showers will be possible Saturday, mainly for areas near the Virginia border. Expect drier weather and more sunshine to return on Sunday.
- We are monitoring the evolution of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Confidence is low on the timing and impacts, if any, for eastern Kentucky from this system.
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.UPDATE... Issued at 701 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
Freshened grids with the latest observations, but overall there was little in the way of changes to the forecast for this evening.
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.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 245 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
Reviewing the 15Z surface analysis, the frontal boundaries that impacted the area earlier this week have now tracked eastward off the Atlantic seaboard. However, a lingering surface low pressure center remains, positioned south of the JKL CWA and centered over northern Georgia. Locally, the JKL CWA is currently under the influence of weak surface high pressure.
Through the remainder of the day and the rest of the forecast period, the slow-moving upper-level trough, which was responsible for the convective activity earlier in the week, will continue to influence the region as it becomes more neutral and eventually quasi- stationary. This trough is expected to persist throughout the period. Favorable upper-level divergence, combined with forecast streamlines showing elevated 1000 mb to 500 mb RH values, indicates optimal moisture transport fetch of Gulf moisture into the southeastern portions of the CWA. This combination will favor these locations for the highest probabilities of afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms. Conversely, northerly flow along the western periphery of the trough will advect drier air into the northwestern portions of the CWA, thereby limiting the potential for afternoon convection in those areas. Any shower or thunderstorm that does develop will rapidly dissipate toward sunset. Overnight clearing is expected each night, potentially leading to locally dense valley fog.
Overall, the forecast period will be highlighted by low-end precipitation chances, primarily across the southeastern portions of the CWA. High temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s, with overnight lows falling into the mid-to-upper 50s to near 60.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 245 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
The main theme for the extended period is uncertainty and low confidence on the evolution of the tropical systems specifically the developing tropical formation over the southern Bahamas. This system is forecast to become a tropical depression soon and move north to northwest into the Atlantic Ocean. The ensemble analysis of shows a much more muted system then the deterministic GFS and ECMWF.
There is also big differences between the deterministic GFS and ECMWF on the track, timing and strength of this low. Phasing of this tropical storm with the persistent but weakening upper low over the southeast United States and Appalachians is a big question.
For Sunday, ensemble analysis and deterministic models show the upper trough closing off over the southeast United States/Southern Appalachians. Northerly flow aloft will dry the area-mass over the region. More sunshine and mostly dry conditions. Only the far eastern counties have a slight chance of showers.
For next week (especially Tuesday through Friday), weakening upper low over the southeast United States/Southern Appalachians remains cut-off. The evolution of this upper trough/low will play a major role in how the tropical system affect the central and southern Appalachians. Confidence is low of tropical track, timing and impacts over east Kentucky.
Mean ensemble QPF depicts only light amounts over east Kentucky during this period, but again there is low confidence on rainfall potential through much of the week.
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.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2025
A system will continue to graze far eastern and southeastern Kentucky over the next 24 hours, with shower and thunderstorm chances beginning to increase again for KSJS toward 09z-11z. Can`t rule out showers and storms making it as far west as KJKL and KLOZ Saturday, but this is too low confidence to include in the TAFs at this time.
VFR conditions were occurring at TAF sites to begin the period, but locally dense river fog is expected to develop after 03z. Fog is forecast to stay largely out of the TAF sites but can`t rule out fog leaking into a site, with KLOZ and KSME having the best chances for such occurring. Light and variable winds will prevail through ~16z Saturday, with a light northerly wind of 4 to 7 kts expected afterwards through the afternoon hours.
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.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
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UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...VORST LONG TERM...DH AVIATION...CMC
NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion