Tenstrike, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

102
FXUS63 KFGF 250817
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
317 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- No weather hazards into early next week. Continued above
  normal temperatures most days.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...Synopsis...
No fog around at 08z for a change. Enough of a boundary layer
southwest wind 5 to 12 kts keeping the temperature a bit higher
and above the dew point. Cold front will make it way southeast
thru the area today....this morning in NE ND and far NW MN and
this aftn farther south. Cooler airmass behind this front, with
strongest cold advection in Manitoba and into northeast ND with
a drop of about 7-9C in 925 mb temperatures comparing this aftn
to yesterday aftn. So agree with latest NBM and HRRR guidance in
keeping northeast ND and parts of NW MN in the mid-upr 60s
today. Warmer south with highs near 80 possible along SD border
before front arrives. It is a dry front with no clouds. Look for
a 3-6 hour period of gusty north-northwest winds behind the
front, most noticeable where the cold advection is strongest in
northeast ND and northwest Minnesota. Wind gusts 25 kts or so
expected northern RRV where favored wind direction will exist
and full mixing from 925-850 mb occurs peaking 15-21z.
High pressure settles in and significantly cooler tonight with
lows in the 40s, near 40 in some places closer to the Intl
border and NW MN cooler spots.
Quick warm up though on Friday as south winds increase to 15-25
mph in the aftn out ahead of another cold front. Winds with this
feature a tad stronger ahead and behind as surface low
strengthens in northern Manitoba. Front is fast moving and thus
any period of stronger wind gusts 30+ mph will be short lived
(3 hours or so). A bit more moisture with it with moddel
consensus bringing a few showers Friday evening with front into
far NW MN, Lake of the Woods area. Front timing puts front into
the RRV 23z-01z period. Warm advection ahead of front will boost
temps likely a tad higher than NBM guidance with mid 70s to low
80s in most areas.
Slightly cooler Saturday though cooler air with this system but
then warming back up quickly Sunday into Tuesday next week with
low 80s in many areas as 500 mb ridge builds into Minnesota.
This does put the area on the east edge of a southwest flow
aloft pattern which as we get toward mid next week may give
precip chances.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Surface high pressure is still holding some influence over far
southeast ND and west central MN and patchy radiation fog may
still develop. However, latest trends in guidance have reduced
the signal for fog impacts at KFAR and KBJI and the probability
for IFR conditions is now less than 10%. Winds from the south-
southwest should shift behind a front Thursday morning becoming
northerly and increasing above 12kt (gusts around 20kt during
the afternoon). These winds eventually shift to the east-
northeast and decrease again Thursday evening as surface high
builds back into the region and daytime mixing ends.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...DJR

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion